It's Hard to be optimistic about 2006-2007

[lribookend]

Before I am attacked for being "anti-this or anti-that", or for "giving up before the season starts" or anything else, let me just say that historically (over the last 40 years or so of watching UK basketball) there have only been 5 or 6 times when I can remember not predicting that UK would be better the coming season than they had been the priorseason. I think my expectations were pretty low going in to the '78/79 season, the '84/85 season, the 96/97 season (not much of a let down, as it turned out), and the 98/99 seasons. Those, and maybe a couple other yearswere the onlyoneswhere I felt we might lose ground. Like many fans, I tend to be eternally optimistic, thinking that returning players whoplayed well the previous year will play evenbetter, that we will avoid injuries/suspensions/transfers/pro contracts (yes, Morris is free to sign one and go proany day or time, regardless of what everyone says), andthat players who didn't play well the prior year will be much better, andthat incoming freshmen willbe as productive as college freshmen as they were as HS seniors. But asMorris, Crawford, Rondo and Bradley recently demonstrated, that doesn't alwayshappen. Counting heavilyon freshmen is risky business.

We lost8 playersfromlast year's team: Sparks, Moss, Stockton, LeMaster, Sims, Williams, Rondo and Alleyne. I won't bother checking the stats, but they have to have accounted for a chunk of rebounds, points, assists, 3-point baskets, steals and game experience. This next year's team will have less college game experience (especially when you get past the starting 5)than any UK team I can remember with the possible exception ofRick Pitino's first UK squad. That squad broke even, mostly because of heart and 3-point shooting.

If you go with the following as starters: Bradley, Crawford, Perry, Morris and a mystery man (Stevenson, Thomas, Woo or Carter); who makes upthe second team?

Porter (Freshman), at the 1?

Jasper (Freshman), atthe 1 or 2 or 3?

Meeks (Freshman), at the 2 or 3?

Stevenson (Freshman) or Thomas or Wooat the 4?

Carter or Woo at the 5?

I know nothing about the walk-on Coury, so I haven't mentionedhim. Maybe he could back up the 4.

It just seems to me we haven't played wellthe past year or so when we went big, so trying to get Carter and Morris or (Woo and Morris) on the court at the same time doesn't look promising.A double-post offense with Carter or Woo out high, and Morris down low might work offensively. But defensively, a tall and slow front line would not match up well against many teams.

Will Chemistry be better this year? Certainly, itonly has one direction in which to go. But I guess I am not "fan" enough to predict improvement just yet. I need to see the new players on the court first.

Will Bradley be able to pass first and shoot second?Will Morris learn to avoid foul trouble? Will the team improve on its 67% free-throw shooting average?Will Crawford be the go-to guy (after Morris), will he show consistency?Will someone step up to play power forward effectively?Will thefreshmen play like freshmen?So many questions to be answered!

I'm not trying to predict disaster, I just don't have enough evidence to predict improvement, either, as many fans have already done. Maybe someone who sees an improved team next year can point out what I am missing, why I should be more positive than I am? By year end, the team may be playing great and make a good run in the tournaments. But early in the year, I think we are going to suffer some pretty bad losses, much like last year.

PS: I hope we make it to the final four next year....but I won't be betting any money on it.

[JohnJ]

lribookend wrote: By year end, the team may be playing great and make a good run in the tournaments. But early in the year, I think we are going to suffer some pretty bad losses, much like last year.

PS: I hope we make it to the final four next year....but I won't be betting any money on it.

By year end, some freshmen might be playing more than some seniors. But early in the year, some seniors might be playing more until those pretty bad losses you (and I) are worried about.

I have very high expectations about Jodie Meeks from day one, and I want him on the court at crunch time.

Derrick Jasper could be a good freshman too, but I do not have a good feelof his game yet so I do not know what to expect about his exact contribution this year.

I expect Perry Stevenson to be aboutthe sameas a freshman as Andre Riddock was as a freshman.

[Caveman Catfan]

I am optimistic.

[VIIBanners]

Caveman Catfan wrote: I am optimistic.I am too and it hasn't been that hard to get to optimistic... you could go so far as to say I am sure we will be good, if not awesome this year.

[Littlemeyer]

VIIBanners wrote: Caveman Catfan wrote: I am optimistic.I am too and it hasn't been that hard to get to optimistic... you could go so far as to say I am sure we will be good, if not awesome this year.

I'm with you guys. This is going to be a fun season...:thumbup

Reasons why include a loaded junior class, a senior who found out he could score at the end of last season, a very tall sophomore who'll be a year stronger and hopefully a year smarter, two players who've been playing out of position finally playing their natural spots, and several freshman who any team in the country would be happy to have.

Add it all up and DARNIT I CAN'T BELIEVE IT'S ONLY MID-SEPTEMBER I'M READY FOR THE SEASON TO START AHORA (SPANISH FOR NOW!!!!)

Yes, I am ready. And it is going to be a fun season...:thumbup

[CatFanInTheBathtub]

I wouldn't put too much stock in the chunk of points, rebounds, playing time etc. we lost from last year. UNC seemed to recover fairly well last year and lost a hell of a lot more than us the year before. Same could be said for UF...would they have won the title withWalsh and Roberson ?...maybe not. Addition by subtraction is the way I look at it. Also, last season's Cats were a team in dire need of CHEMISTRY; which can really only improve this year. With all due respect to the departees, will we really miss any one of them ?

Bottom line, I see a MUCH MUCH improved team this year.

Is it November yet ?

[BigBlue75]

You're certainly entitled to your opinion, but it's not hard at all for me.

I'm very optimistic.

For the simple reason that it's the University of Kentucky Wildcats that are taking the floor, and being a llfelong Cat fan, that's all the reason I need.

[audacious1]

I certainly believe we'll have a better season than last year. I believe most fans think this is true.

[DCWildcat]

I'm optimistic (I'm always optimistic though).

I can definately understand someone who isn't, though.

Still, the way you've analyzed it is unfair. Think of what it means to say "we lose players, therefore we'll suffer," then saying "since we haven't seen any of the changes we need, we can't be optimistic."

Using that kind of analysis, every team in college basketball will be worse than it was the year before.

[SunBaller]

lribookend wrote: Before I am attacked for being "anti-this or anti-that", or for "giving up before the season starts" or anything else, let me just say that historically (over the last 40 years or so of watching UK basketball) there have only been 5 or 6 times when I can remember not predicting that UK would be better the coming season than they had been the priorseason.
We lost8 playersfromlast year's team: Sparks, Moss, Stockton, LeMaster, Sims, Williams, Rondo and Alleyne. I won't bother checking the stats, but they have to have accounted for a chunk of rebounds, points, assists, 3-point baskets, steals and game experience. This next year's team will have less college game experience (especially when you get past the starting 5)than any UK team I can remember with the possible exception ofRick Pitino's first UK squad. That squad broke even, mostly because of heart and 3-point shooting.

If you go with the following as starters: Bradley, Crawford, Perry, Morris and a mystery man (Stevenson, Thomas, Woo or Carter); who makes upthe second team?

Porter (Freshman), at the 1?

Jasper (Freshman), atthe 1 or 2 or 3?

Meeks (Freshman), at the 2 or 3?

Stevenson (Freshman) or Thomas or Wooat the 4?

Carter or Woo at the 5?



I believe this will be more like a rebuilding year. We really have nothing to start with. There's no heart and there's no starting Kentucky Boys. If Morris, Bradley, and/or Crawford have a good year they will not be here for their senior year. However, if all three have a good year, UK Basketball will have a good year. That's all that is important. But that's our only chance. If only one of the threehas a good year we will not accomplish anything and that player will be gone. The following year 2007/08 won't be as good as it should be. I don't like what we got coming into 06/07as "veteran" players. Withour "veteran" players and Tubby's coaching styles, I don't see this team going deep into the NCAA. That's what it is all about. Nothing else matters.

The key to this team will be BOBBY PERRY. His last two games in the NCAA Tournament were All-American quality. If he continues, we have a very good chance of going deep if everyone else just steps up a little. It may hinge on point guard play.

[Coldstream]

SunBaller wrote: lribookend wrote: Before I am attacked for being "anti-this or anti-that", or for "giving up before the season starts" or anything else, let me just say that historically (over the last 40 years or so of watching UK basketball) there have only been 5 or 6 times when I can remember not predicting that UK would be better the coming season than they had been the priorseason.
We lost8 playersfromlast year's team: Sparks, Moss, Stockton, LeMaster, Sims, Williams, Rondo and Alleyne. I won't bother checking the stats, but they have to have accounted for a chunk of rebounds, points, assists, 3-point baskets, steals and game experience. This next year's team will have less college game experience (especially when you get past the starting 5)than any UK team I can remember with the possible exception ofRick Pitino's first UK squad. That squad broke even, mostly because of heart and 3-point shooting.

If you go with the following as starters: Bradley, Crawford, Perry, Morris and a mystery man (Stevenson, Thomas, Woo or Carter); who makes upthe second team?

Porter (Freshman), at the 1?

Jasper (Freshman), atthe 1 or 2 or 3?

Meeks (Freshman), at the 2 or 3?

Stevenson (Freshman) or Thomas or Wooat the 4?

Carter or Woo at the 5?



I believe this will be more like a rebuilding year. We really have nothing to start with. There's no heart and there's no starting Kentucky Boys. If Morris, Bradley, and/or Crawford have a good year they will not be here for their senior year. However, if all three have a good year, UK Basketball will have a good year. That's all that is important. But that's our only chance. If only one of the threehas a good year we will not accomplish anything and that player will be gone. The following year 2007/08 won't be as good as it should be. I don't like what we got coming into 06/07as "veteran" players. Withour "veteran" players and Tubby's coaching styles, I don't see this team going deep into the NCAA. That's what it is all about. Nothing else matters.

The key to this team will be BOBBY PERRY. His last two games in the NCAA Tournament were All-American quality. If he continues, we have a very good chance of going deep if everyone else just steps up a little. It may hinge on point guard play.


We really have nothing to start with. There's no heart and there's no starting Kentucky Boys.

This isn't 1950s either. Time have change and we haven't seen how this team will respond in clutch situations. Just a narrow-minded view.

[DCWildcat]

I think we have far more heart this year than last.

The only person on last year's team who really seemed to bleed for Kentucky to me was Ravi. Rondo, despite being a great player, was cold and aloof. Lots of people tend to credit Sparks for energy, honestly probably due solely to the fact that he was an overachieving Kentucky boy than anything else. His dejected slump when he wasn't doing well was not impressive.

The additions of Meeks and Porter, along with Bradley playing a more central role, lead me to believe this team will be a more fiery squad.

[SunBaller]

Coldstream wrote: SunBaller wrote: lribookend wrote: Before I am attacked for being "anti-this or anti-that", or for "giving up before the season starts" or anything else, let me just say that historically (over the last 40 years or so of watching UK basketball) there have only been 5 or 6 times when I can remember not predicting that UK would be better the coming season than they had been the priorseason.
We lost8 playersfromlast year's team: Sparks, Moss, Stockton, LeMaster, Sims, Williams, Rondo and Alleyne. I won't bother checking the stats, but they have to have accounted for a chunk of rebounds, points, assists, 3-point baskets, steals and game experience. This next year's team will have less college game experience (especially when you get past the starting 5)than any UK team I can remember with the possible exception ofRick Pitino's first UK squad. That squad broke even, mostly because of heart and 3-point shooting.

If you go with the following as starters: Bradley, Crawford, Perry, Morris and a mystery man (Stevenson, Thomas, Woo or Carter); who makes upthe second team?

Porter (Freshman), at the 1?

Jasper (Freshman), atthe 1 or 2 or 3?

Meeks (Freshman), at the 2 or 3?

Stevenson (Freshman) or Thomas or Wooat the 4?

Carter or Woo at the 5?



I believe this will be more like a rebuilding year. We really have nothing to start with. There's no heart and there's no starting Kentucky Boys. If Morris, Bradley, and/or Crawford have a good year they will not be here for their senior year. However, if all three have a good year, UK Basketball will have a good year. That's all that is important. But that's our only chance. If only one of the threehas a good year we will not accomplish anything and that player will be gone. The following year 2007/08 won't be as good as it should be. I don't like what we got coming into 06/07as "veteran" players. Withour "veteran" players and Tubby's coaching styles, I don't see this team going deep into the NCAA. That's what it is all about. Nothing else matters.

The key to this team will be BOBBY PERRY. His last two games in the NCAA Tournament were All-American quality. If he continues, we have a very good chance of going deep if everyone else just steps up a little. It may hinge on point guard play.


We really have nothing to start with. There's no heart and there's no starting Kentucky Boys.

This isn't 1950s either. Time have change and we haven't seen how this team will respond in clutch situations. Just a narrow-minded view.

"This isn't 1950s either."
You're exactly right. This isn't the 1990's either, but we were very successful in the 1990's. I don't think I have to tell you why we were successful in the 1990's. Recruiting and Motivation. That wasn't that long ago. You're right, you have an extremely narrow-minded view. We have three (3) High School All-American Juniors.The "let's wait and see what happens this season" syndrome is tiring. It's all very predictable.What you're experiencing is called denial. How many season will we have to "let'swait and see what happens this season"?

"How often it is that the angry man rages denial of what his inner self is telling him." - Frank Herbert



I just can't get enough of Frank Herbert.

[trublue4life]

SunBaller wrote: How many season will we have to "let'swait and see what happens this season"?


Uhh, actually, you have to say that every season unless you have some psychic powers to see into the future. And Coldstream is right; the part about no Kentucky boys starting is narrow-minded. Last I checked the word "Kentucky" is across every player's jersey.

[CatFanInTheBathtub]

SunBaller wrote: Coldstream wrote: SunBaller wrote: lribookend wrote: Before I am attacked for being "anti-this or anti-that", or for "giving up before the season starts" or anything else, let me just say that historically (over the last 40 years or so of watching UK basketball) there have only been 5 or 6 times when I can remember not predicting that UK would be better the coming season than they had been the priorseason.
We lost8 playersfromlast year's team: Sparks, Moss, Stockton, LeMaster, Sims, Williams, Rondo and Alleyne. I won't bother checking the stats, but they have to have accounted for a chunk of rebounds, points, assists, 3-point baskets, steals and game experience. This next year's team will have less college game experience (especially when you get past the starting 5)than any UK team I can remember with the possible exception ofRick Pitino's first UK squad. That squad broke even, mostly because of heart and 3-point shooting.

If you go with the following as starters: Bradley, Crawford, Perry, Morris and a mystery man (Stevenson, Thomas, Woo or Carter); who makes upthe second team?

Porter (Freshman), at the 1?

Jasper (Freshman), atthe 1 or 2 or 3?

Meeks (Freshman), at the 2 or 3?

Stevenson (Freshman) or Thomas or Wooat the 4?

Carter or Woo at the 5?



I believe this will be more like a rebuilding year. We really have nothing to start with. There's no heart and there's no starting Kentucky Boys. If Morris, Bradley, and/or Crawford have a good year they will not be here for their senior year. However, if all three have a good year, UK Basketball will have a good year. That's all that is important. But that's our only chance. If only one of the threehas a good year we will not accomplish anything and that player will be gone. The following year 2007/08 won't be as good as it should be. I don't like what we got coming into 06/07as "veteran" players. Withour "veteran" players and Tubby's coaching styles, I don't see this team going deep into the NCAA. That's what it is all about. Nothing else matters.

The key to this team will be BOBBY PERRY. His last two games in the NCAA Tournament were All-American quality. If he continues, we have a very good chance of going deep if everyone else just steps up a little. It may hinge on point guard play.


We really have nothing to start with. There's no heart and there's no starting Kentucky Boys.

This isn't 1950s either. Time have change and we haven't seen how this team will respond in clutch situations. Just a narrow-minded view.

"This isn't 1950s either."
You're exactly right. This isn't the 1990's either, but we were very successful in the 1990's. I don't think I have to tell you why we were successful in the 1990's. Recruiting and Motivation. That wasn't that long ago. You're right, you have an extremely narrow-minded view. We have three (3) High School All-American Juniors.The "let's wait and see what happens this season" syndrome is tiring. It's all very predictable.What you're experiencing is called denial. How many season will we have to "let'swait and see what happens this season"?

"How often it is that the angry man rages denial of what his inner self is telling him." - Frank Herbert



I just can't get enough of Frank Herbert.

Sunballer

I'd say this one takes the cake but it's just all too similar to your other 771 posts.

question : do you have any other frank herbert quotes up your sleeve or are we all doomed to keep reading this horribly inappropriate one?

[lribookend]

I wish to thank everyone for their posts. We got slightly off track at times, but there were some very honest and sincere positions expressed. Some of us are much more positive than others, but arguments can clearly be made to support either side (which makes the thread enjoyable). Probably, no one has changed their position much based on what was said, but that is OK.

I must say that I believe this year'steam may be more of a TEAM, and therefore more enjoyable to watch than last year's team. At least on paper, though,it doesn't look like a topten team in terms of talent (alliteration intended). And as one reader noted, the Mickie D's stated goals of playing in theNBA as soonas possible doesn't bode well for a strong team next year, either. If Morris, Crawford and/or Bradley has a great year,chances are pretty good they willbolt if the opportunityappears. Perry, Woo and Thomas will be gone, and givenwe only have one sophomore on the team (Jared Carter), Tubby will need to have at least onemonster recruiting year or we may continue to struggle down the road, also.

But I will watch every game andcheer as loud as ever. But my expectations are pretty low.

[ukbob]

I actually believe this will be a much better TEAM than last year. In fact, I have no doubt at all on that. Not talking about the record or how the season plays out in total, but I think the TEAM will be far better than last year's Team Turmoil II.

Hopefully that will translate into more solid wins and no blowouts but nobody really knows.

Way too many unanswered questions....

Will Crawford finally arrive? Will Morris be less foul prone? Can Carter contribute? Will the Freshmen spark us? Can Bradley actually run the team from the PG position? Can Perry build on his NCAA success?

If we get positive answers to those questions, then I truly think we have a Final Four team.

Am I optimistic? Cautiously, yes.

[audacious1]

SunBaller wrote: lribookend wrote: Before I am attacked for being "anti-this or anti-that", or for "giving up before the season starts" or anything else, let me just say that historically (over the last 40 years or so of watching UK basketball) there have only been 5 or 6 times when I can remember not predicting that UK would be better the coming season than they had been the priorseason.
We lost8 playersfromlast year's team: Sparks, Moss, Stockton, LeMaster, Sims, Williams, Rondo and Alleyne. I won't bother checking the stats, but they have to have accounted for a chunk of rebounds, points, assists, 3-point baskets, steals and game experience. This next year's team will have less college game experience (especially when you get past the starting 5)than any UK team I can remember with the possible exception ofRick Pitino's first UK squad. That squad broke even, mostly because of heart and 3-point shooting.

If you go with the following as starters: Bradley, Crawford, Perry, Morris and a mystery man (Stevenson, Thomas, Woo or Carter); who makes upthe second team?

Porter (Freshman), at the 1?

Jasper (Freshman), atthe 1 or 2 or 3?

Meeks (Freshman), at the 2 or 3?

Stevenson (Freshman) or Thomas or Wooat the 4?

Carter or Woo at the 5?



I believe this will be more like a rebuilding year. We really have nothing to start with. There's no heart and there's no starting Kentucky Boys. If Morris, Bradley, and/or Crawford have a good year they will not be here for their senior year. However, if all three have a good year, UK Basketball will have a good year. That's all that is important. But that's our only chance. If only one of the threehas a good year we will not accomplish anything and that player will be gone. The following year 2007/08 won't be as good as it should be. I don't like what we got coming into 06/07as "veteran" players. Withour "veteran" players and Tubby's coaching styles, I don't see this team going deep into the NCAA. That's what it is all about. Nothing else matters.

The key to this team will be BOBBY PERRY. His last two games in the NCAA Tournament were All-American quality. If he continues, we have a very good chance of going deep if everyone else just steps up a little. It may hinge on point guard play.


To say we have "no heart" is completely crap and if our players/staff say this they're raise their hands to the air and say, "There go our crazy fans again."

First off, we haven't seen Game 1 yet.

Second, by most accounts, and the only player we lost who had TONS of heart was Ravi, like DCWildcat said. Sparks had it at times, but in other times seemeddemure. I do think that with the exception of Bradley, there are a good number of our returning players who don't have the kind of heart we really would love, but adding Meeks andJasper, that should more than make up for the imbalance, IMO.

[sardiscat]

Put me in the optimist camp. UK has 3 seniors and 3 juniors who have started in the past, plus a tall sophomore center and talented freshmen at the positions that are thin. Tubby has indicated he is going to play Perry and Crawford at their natural positions, which means a normal-sized team on the floor capable of defending inside. He has fewer players, so he can't screw things up as bad this year trying all the different combinations. So long as Tubby doesn't put Crawford back at forward trying to play smurfball again, I look for great things this season.

[Bird]

ukbob wrote: I actually believe this will be a much better TEAM than last year. In fact, I have no doubt at all on that. Not talking about the record or how the season plays out in total, but I think the TEAM will be far better than last year's Team Turmoil II.

Hopefully that will translate into more solid wins and no blowouts but nobody really knows.

Way too many unanswered questions....

Will Crawford finally arrive? Will Morris be less foul prone? Can Carter contribute? Will the Freshmen spark us? Can Bradley actually run the team from the PG position? Can Perry build on his NCAA success?

If we get positive answers to those questions, then I truly think we have a Final Four team.

Am I optimistic? Cautiously, yes.

I'm not too concerned about the questions concerning the starting 5. I think Bradley, Crawford, Perry, Thomas, and Morris can play with and beat any starting 5 in the nation. The real questions about this season is the bench. Will Tubby continue to use a 10 man rotation even though we don't have the talent too? Will the freshman be able to come in and play at a high level right away because they're our only option off the bench at the gaurd position? What happens when Morris does get into foul trouble because he will be in foul trouble? Woo is what he is (by the way I love the guy because I think he honestly tries as hard as he can and he has a lot of heart and passion for Kentucky Basketball, and I love it when they interview him on the post game), decent player that can come in and bang/foul with some guys but not a spark off the bench and won't give you points, andmy view on Carter is I'll believe it when I see it. It seems like tubby feels obligated to play at least ten players a game; like its little league or something and everyone has to play. However, we just don't have the depth to do that. I'm always excieted aboutUK basketball, butI'm fearful that our lack of depth willhold us back.

[Will Lavender]

sardiscat wrote: Put me in the optimist camp. UK has 3 seniors and 3 juniors who have started in the past, plus a tall sophomore center and talented freshmen at the positions that are thin. Tubby has indicated he is going to play Perry and Crawford at their natural positions, which means a normal-sized team on the floor capable of defending inside. He has fewer players, so he can't screw things up as bad this year trying all the different combinations. So long as Tubby doesn't put Crawford back at forward trying to play smurfball again, I look for great things this season.

I agree with this.

Experience. Better defensive match-ups. Two very important things, and we've got both of them.

Crawford moving back to the 2 is going to do wonders for this team, I believe.

Not sure I buy -- or even understand -- the "no heart" comment made above.

Like Tre said, how do we know this team has no heart when they haven't played a game?

I'm optimistic. I like when teams have juniors and seniors, even if they have on-paper deficiencies. See 2005.

[Will Lavender]

lribookend wrote: I'm not trying to predict disaster, I just don't have enough evidence to predict improvement, either, as many fans have already done.


I think when people "predict improvement," they're simply looking at what we lost and projecting that the guys who are going to fill in might be better.

The players who are stepping in are going to be bigger, quicker, and stronger, so that is a plus. Last year's team was, to put it bluntly, weak and slow.

But really, I don't think we can predict anything accurately. I saw last year's bunch in October and said they looked like a Final Four team. When Rajon started to slack off offensively, I think the whole thing went.

We need our best players to play well. Just like they say in football: get your playmakers the ball.

As SunBaller said, if Crawford, Morris, Bradley and Perry have big seasons, this team has enough to win 30 games.

If those players don't improve, this is a team who could easily be flirting with the NIT.

[ukbob]

Improvement is definitely needed. However, to imporve on the mess that was UK basketball last season would not be a great feat. I just happen to think the chemistry will be better and the Freshmen coming in are top quality kids with talent. Mix that with our returnees and you cannot help but expect "improvement".

It could be a special season if things work out. That is what I am optimistic about.

[RaleighCat]

It kinda reminds me of the 2004 season. We had just lost Bogans/Estill/Camara and came back with a small front line of Hayes/Daniels/Azubuike. Hawkins was a work in progress and Fitch was having off-court trouble. Our incoming frosh were mostly unknowns.

They're not identical, but we had lots of question marks in '04 despite the number of returnees. I think Perry/Bradley/Morris could be thetype of leaders that Fitch/ED/Hawkins/Hayes were as upperclassmen. I firmly believe our frosh will contribute from Day 1. Crawford has amazing potential. Carter could be a beast.

Despite how I feel about Tubby's direction, I like this team and feel we'll bounce back. Tubby seems to buckle down in these situations and we finally havetalented upperclass leadership. Nothing that happens will surprise me- but I'm extremely optimistic and bullish on this squad.

Go Cats!

[POEKLM]

New strength coach..new attitude... I am optimistic!

[poodoo]

I am optimistic (surprise, surprise :D), although cautiously optimistic might be a bit more accurate. I always tend to have a WAIT AND SEE attitude, as I onlyKNOWthat I do NOTKNOW anything about how next season will actually go.

Here are the reasons I am optimistic, or why I see the glass as half-full:


1. Tubby's teams usually perform better when "his back is against the wall."

2. The new strength and conditioning coach should make these guys both stronger physicallyand also more focused and disciplined mentally.

3. The team should have better team chemistry (although I definitely do not go as far as labeling last year's team "Team Turmoil II).

4. I love the freshmen class's potential (and especially Jodie Meeks' attitude and character, and I'm not saying that because his dad sometimes reads and posts here, but just based on what I have read about the young man).

[JohnJ]

ukbob wrote: Improvement is definitely needed. However, to improve on the mess that was UK basketball last season would not be a great feat.

That is certainly true! Only in Sutton's lastseason and in Pitino's first season, have UK basketball teams ever lost more games than last season.....soalmost anything has to be an improvement.

[CatFanInTheBathtub]

ukbob wrote: Improvement is definitely needed. However, to imporve on the mess that was UK basketball last season would not be a great feat.



Exactly.

That's why I'm so psyched, because improvement is a nearly obvious result.

Anyone who doesn't see us improving (i.e. thread starter), I'd like to know which 13 games you think we are going to lose this year.

[Will Lavender]

CatFanInTheBathtub wrote: ukbob wrote: Improvement is definitely needed. However, to imporve on the mess that was UK basketball last season would not be a great feat.



Exactly.

That's why I'm so psyched, because improvement is a nearly obvious result.

Anyone who doesn't see us improving (i.e. thread starter), I'd like to know which 13 games you think we are going to lose this year.

Devil's Advocate:

It was hard to find 13 games we could lose last year.

But getting swept by Vandy, losing to Bama on our home floor, getting blown out by Indiana, and losing to South Carolina in the SEC Tournament happened, apparently.

[CatFanInTheBathtub]

Will Lavender wrote: CatFanInTheBathtub wrote: ukbob wrote: Improvement is definitely needed. However, to imporve on the mess that was UK basketball last season would not be a great feat.



Exactly.

That's why I'm so psyched, because improvement is a nearly obvious result.

Anyone who doesn't see us improving (i.e. thread starter), I'd like to know which 13 games you think we are going to lose this year.

Devil's Advocate:

It was hard to find 13 games we could lose last year.

But getting swept by Vandy, losing to Bama on our home floor, getting blown out by Indiana, and losing to South Carolina in the SEC Tournament happened, apparently.

I see what you're saying Will, but you got to admit that many of those losses were....ahem.... "contributed to" by persons who no longer play for us

[lribookend]

CatFanInTheBathtub wrote: ukbob wrote: Improvement is definitely needed. However, to imporve on the mess that was UK basketball last season would not be a great feat.



Exactly.

That's why I'm so psyched, because improvement is a nearly obvious result.

Anyone who doesn't see us improving (i.e. thread starter), I'd like to know which 13 games you think we are going to lose this year.
I don't meaure improvement simply by the number of losses. I look at finish in the SEC East, performance in the SEC Tournament, and performance in the NCAA tournament as the measure of "Improvement". Do I see UK placing 2nd in the SEC East? NO. DO I see us winning the SEC Tournament? NO. Do I see us going to the Final FOUR? NO. So, even if we "ONLY" lose 10 games, as I predict, I don't see us "improving". You may see a significant improvment if we "only lose" 10 games, but Iook at where we place in the SEC regular season, the SEC Tournament, and the NCAA tournament as measures of "improvement". And by those measures, I don't expect improvement. You may think if we win a few more games against the Vandy's and their ilk, that we have "improved". I, for one, do NOT see that as "improvement".

[Will Lavender]

lribookend wrote: CatFanInTheBathtub wrote: ukbob wrote: Improvement is definitely needed. However, to imporve on the mess that was UK basketball last season would not be a great feat.



Exactly.

That's why I'm so psyched, because improvement is a nearly obvious result.

Anyone who doesn't see us improving (i.e. thread starter), I'd like to know which 13 games you think we are going to lose this year.
I don't meaure improvement simply by the number of losses. I look at finish in the SEC East, performance in the SEC Tournament, and performance in the NCAA tournament as the measure of "Improvement". Do I see UK placing 2nd in the SEC East? NO. DO I see us winning the SEC Tournament? NO. Do I see us going to the Final FOUR? NO. So, even if we "ONLY" lose 10 games, as I predict, I don't see us "improving". You may see a significant improvment if we "only lose" 10 games, but Iook at where we place in the SEC regular season, the SEC Tournament, and the NCAA tournament as measures of "improvement". And by those measures, I don't expect improvement. You may think if we win a few more games against the Vandy's and their ilk, that we have "improved". I, for one, do NOT see that as "improvement".


I'd say everyone on this board would agree with you.

Yet, if this team does lose 8 to 10 games in what's going to be a gruelling conference, then that will probably mean they're going to get a pretty good seed in both the SEC and NCAA Tourneys. And if they're seeded highly, then they should be able to put themselves in position to improve over last year's postseason finishes.

I just think it's hard to "see" UK at all this year. They lost so much and are going to have to rely on so many new parts that predictions of any kind -- optimistic or pessimistic -- are more than likely going to be widly off-base.

[Terry L. Wildcat]

:cool:We have Kentucky on the front of our jerseys so I know anything is possible...once I get through rooting for our football Wildcats I'm ready to toss it up...GO BIG BLUE!!!

[BigblueDrew]

Will Lavender wrote: lribookend wrote: I'm not trying to predict disaster, I just don't have enough evidence to predict improvement, either, as many fans have already done.


I think when people "predict improvement," they're simply looking at what we lost and projecting that the guys who are going to fill in might be better.

The players who are stepping in are going to be bigger, quicker, and stronger, so that is a plus. Last year's team was, to put it bluntly, weak and slow.

But really, I don't think we can predict anything accurately. I saw last year's bunch in October and said they looked like a Final Four team. When Rajon started to slack off offensively, I think the whole thing went.

We need our best players to play well. Just like they say in football: get your playmakers the ball.

As SunBaller said, if Crawford, Morris, Bradley and Perry have big seasons, this team has enough to win 30 games.

If those players don't improve, this is a team who could easily be flirting with the NIT.

Will nobody "stepping in" will be quicker than Rajon Rondo. Nobody (based on past performance, the only true indicator of future performance) shoots the three as well as Patrick Sparks. How will we be "bigger". Woo, andSheray will be just as slow of foot as last year. Carter might or might not improve, I certianly didn't see enough in his BREIF stints on the court to assume he will. To base this years improvement on the performance of Bobby Perry is also a risky proposition. It is easier to assume he will play as he has in about 50 games as a Cat than the two abberations I saw in the NCAA tourney. Nobody on the bench has played a single college game with the grit and determinationof aRavi Moss. We also are assuming that Crawford's often inconsistant play was due to being played out of position, maybe or maybe not. To me our only real chance of SIGNIFICANT improvement lies in two factors. Dominant play by Morris in the post(a distinct possibility) and above average play by SEVERAL Freshmen( a very risky assumption).We have the thinnest bench in living memory, very little experience off the bench, and a coach under tremendous pressure to win and win big. I just can't see any realistic reasons to assume we will be alot better this year.I hope that all these questions are answered positively but I am not expecting it. I was born in Haiyti Mo. and this Cat club and this coach are going to have to "show me".

[BigCat33]

Nothing get's my blood pumping more then walking into Rupp before a game. The feeling never changes. It's a wonderful experience.

[lribookend]

Will and Drew, I agree with both of you. Will is right that there have been too many changes to even begin to get an accurate read on this year's team (although insufficient data has rarely been a reason for fans to withhold their opinions of the future success or failure of the Wildcats), lol. Drew, I agree with you that the stars would have to align just right for us (on paper, at least), to improve on last year's results, a very disappointing season over all. Losing 8 players, even if some were marginal performers at the college level, and replacing them with 4 or 5 untested high school players doesn't instill confidence in me. Occasionally a high school player lives up to, or even exceeds the hype he received in high school. But more often than not, it takes them a year or two before they makemuch of animpact at the college level, (if they do at all). UK's storied history is littered withexamples of High-School All-State and All American players who fizzled after reaching Lexington. I hope thatPorter, Stevenson, Jasper, Meeks and Coury (sp?) each make All-SEC. But more than likely, 3 of the 4 will turn out to be average, solid college players over the next 4 years. One may be a star. But considering the overall talent level of the team, we need some incredible recruiting over the next couple years if we have any expectation of reaching the Final Four again in the near future. Just my opinion.

[Aike]

I think our losses last year were a joint effort between former players, current players, and coaching staff. I've flipped it sideways, upset down, and backwards, looked at it from every angle, and I have trouble coming to any other conclusion.

CatFanInTheBathtub wrote: Will Lavender wrote: CatFanInTheBathtub wrote: ukbob wrote: Improvement is definitely needed. However, to imporve on the mess that was UK basketball last season would not be a great feat.



Exactly.

That's why I'm so psyched, because improvement is a nearly obvious result.

Anyone who doesn't see us improving (i.e. thread starter), I'd like to know which 13 games you think we are going to lose this year.

Devil's Advocate:

It was hard to find 13 games we could lose last year.

But getting swept by Vandy, losing to Bama on our home floor, getting blown out by Indiana, and losing to South Carolina in the SEC Tournament happened, apparently.

I see what you're saying Will, but you got to admit that many of those losses were....ahem.... "contributed to" by persons who no longer play for us

[Aike]

I think we are going to be a good team this year. In my gut, I feel that we will be much more consistent, buoyed by our core of mature players.

However, I think the key to us making a deep run will be the development of our freshman. I have trouble seeing us competing with Florida unless Perry Stevenson steps up on the defensive end. I think Jasper could be an X-factor, the kind of freshman who goes off a time or two and wins games for us. And Meeks has the potential to be a glue player, reminiscent of an early Gerald Fitch. Currently, I have my fingers crossed.

[KY Native in IN]

Caveman Catfan wrote:
I am optimistic.

amen!

[WildcatDan]

Quick question... how do you type with your fingers crossed?

Anyway, I am usually pretty optimistic and this year is no different.

Matt Jones mentioned in his latest blog that Thomas, Woo, or Carter needed to step up to make this team work and he is obviously right... The thing is, that I think all three of them are capable of having great games from time to time. I am not sure that any one of them will step up and be a superstar this year, but if they can play solid (even by commitee) then we should be in good shape.

I am seriously hoping that Holsopple has gotten a hold of Woo and has had him working his hands day and night. If he could catch a pass he would have the potential to be a pretty good contributer. Thomas needs to learn the difference between a good foul and a bad foul. He seems to pick up WAY to many that could have been avoided by better positioning. He has the bulk (and the fearlessness) to get in there and bang, he just needs to do it with a bit more control. Carter has TONS of potential. He looked like he had the solid fundamentals that can be built on - but will it be this year or the next? Hopefully he comes along pretty quickly and can provide some quality minutes with points, blocks, and rebounds.

Anyway, the core of the team has already been discussed and I am hopeful that one or two of the freshmen will have good or great seasons as well. We should be just fine this year and I think this team will suprise some analysts and fans alike. There is no accounting for the effects of good chemistry. That should be helped by having a (very) vocal leader in Bradley and a solid upperclassman like Bobby Perry. We should also have a chip on our shoulder to prove all of the naysayers wrong - and that can mean a lot!

GO CATS!

[Will Lavender]

BigblueDrew wrote: Will Lavender wrote: lribookend wrote: I'm not trying to predict disaster, I just don't have enough evidence to predict improvement, either, as many fans have already done.


I think when people "predict improvement," they're simply looking at what we lost and projecting that the guys who are going to fill in might be better.

The players who are stepping in are going to be bigger, quicker, and stronger, so that is a plus. Last year's team was, to put it bluntly, weak and slow.

But really, I don't think we can predict anything accurately. I saw last year's bunch in October and said they looked like a Final Four team. When Rajon started to slack off offensively, I think the whole thing went.

We need our best players to play well. Just like they say in football: get your playmakers the ball.

As SunBaller said, if Crawford, Morris, Bradley and Perry have big seasons, this team has enough to win 30 games.

If those players don't improve, this is a team who could easily be flirting with the NIT.

Will nobody "stepping in" will be quicker than Rajon Rondo. Nobody (based on past performance, the only true indicator of future performance) shoots the three as well as Patrick Sparks. How will we be "bigger". Woo, andSheray will be just as slow of foot as last year. Carter might or might not improve, I certianly didn't see enough in his BREIF stints on the court to assume he will. To base this years improvement on the performance of Bobby Perry is also a risky proposition. It is easier to assume he will play as he has in about 50 games as a Cat than the two abberations I saw in the NCAA tourney. Nobody on the bench has played a single college game with the grit and determinationof aRavi Moss. We also are assuming that Crawford's often inconsistant play was due to being played out of position, maybe or maybe not. To me our only real chance of SIGNIFICANT improvement lies in two factors. Dominant play by Morris in the post(a distinct possibility) and above average play by SEVERAL Freshmen( a very risky assumption).We have the thinnest bench in living memory, very little experience off the bench, and a coach under tremendous pressure to win and win big. I just can't see any realistic reasons to assume we will be alot better this year.I hope that all these questions are answered positively but I am not expecting it. I was born in Haiyti Mo. and this Cat club and this coach are going to have to "show me".
It's all about defense with this team, I think. Last year's team was scoring the ball when Morris came back, but they were having all kinds of trouble stopping the other team.

Defensively, Sparks was out of position every time out. You've got a player stepping in in Joe Crawford who is not the three point threat Sparks was, but he certainly is going to match-up against big, strong 2s. I'm going to guarantee that that will make a difference.

Ravi Moss had a lousy season last year, especially defensively. He was gritty, yeah, but grit doesn't make up for talent. I saw him get roughed up every single time he was put out there because he just wasn't big and strong enough to guard the 3.

We do have a thin bench. But I've come to the realization that bench play is not that important in college basketball. Last year, we were getting nearly 25 points off the bench, and where did that get us? Tubby seems to do better when he doesn't have so many kids at his disposal.

I agree with you that we're probably not going to be "a lot" better. But really, by the end of last season, UK was a pretty good ball team. Not great, certainly, but good enough to compete with anyone. The UCONN game proved that. If this team can just improve a little from the way we were playing in February and March of last year, then I think we can be pretty good.

College basketball is so unpredictable. That's the beauty of it. Syracuse and Florida were unranked coming into national championship seasons. UK was counted out in 2003 because they'd just come off Team Turmoil. That kind of one-year turnaround happens all the time.

[Littlemeyer]

WildcatDan wrote: Quick question... how do you type with your fingers crossed?

Anyway, I am usually pretty optimistic and this year is no different.

Matt Jones mentioned in his latest blog that Thomas, Woo, or Carter needed to step up to make this team work and he is obviously right... The thing is, that I think all three of them are capable of having great games from time to time. I am not sure that any one of them will step up and be a superstar this year, but if they can play solid (even by commitee) then we should be in good shape.

I am seriously hoping that Holsopple has gotten a hold of Woo and has had him working his hands day and night. If he could catch a pass he would have the potential to be a pretty good contributer. Thomas needs to learn the difference between a good foul and a bad foul. He seems to pick up WAY to many that could have been avoided by better positioning. He has the bulk (and the fearlessness) to get in there and bang, he just needs to do it with a bit more control. Carter has TONS of potential. He looked like he had the solid fundamentals that can be built on - but will it be this year or the next? Hopefully he comes along pretty quickly and can provide some quality minutes with points, blocks, and rebounds.

Anyway, the core of the team has already been discussed and I am hopeful that one or two of the freshmen will have good or great seasons as well. We should be just fine this year and I think this team will suprise some analysts and fans alike. There is no accounting for the effects of good chemistry. That should be helped by having a (very) vocal leader in Bradley and a solid upperclassman like Bobby Perry. We should also have a chip on our shoulder to prove all of the naysayers wrong - and that can mean a lot!

GO CATS!

That's a great post Dan, and a VERY good point about Woo's hands. I've mentioned before on here (I think) that an oft overlooked skill that made the 2003 team so remarkable was their ability to catch passes. That was a fantastic passing team, no doubt, but good passes without good catches will show up as turnovers on the stat sheet.

[KY Native in IN]

WildcatDan wrote:
Quick question... how do you type with your fingers crossed?



X X

i know LAME!!! :lol: GO CATS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:wildcatface

[poodoo]

I think our losses last year were a joint effort between former players, current players, and coaching staff. I've flipped it sideways, upset down, and backwards, looked at it from every angle, and I have trouble coming to any other conclusion. QUOTE by Aike

__________

Excellently said, Aike. Also, I could not agree more.

Further, the former players are obviously gone; the current players (the returning ones from last season) are a year older and wiser and definitely more developedunder the new strength andconditioning coach; and the coaching staff, I strongly suspect, will do a better job after learning from somemistakes last season. That makes me cautiously OPTIMISTIC. :D

[CatFanInTheBathtub]

lribookend wrote: CatFanInTheBathtub wrote: ukbob wrote: Improvement is definitely needed. However, to imporve on the mess that was UK basketball last season would not be a great feat.



Exactly.

That's why I'm so psyched, because improvement is a nearly obvious result.

Anyone who doesn't see us improving (i.e. thread starter), I'd like to know which 13 games you think we are going to lose this year.
I don't meaure improvement simply by the number of losses. I look at finish in the SEC East, performance in the SEC Tournament, and performance in the NCAA tournament as the measure of "Improvement". Do I see UK placing 2nd in the SEC East? NO. DO I see us winning the SEC Tournament? NO. Do I see us going to the Final FOUR? NO. So, even if we "ONLY" lose 10 games, as I predict, I don't see us "improving". You may see a significant improvment if we "only lose" 10 games, but Iook at where we place in the SEC regular season, the SEC Tournament, and the NCAA tournament as measures of "improvement". And by those measures, I don't expect improvement. You may think if we win a few more games against the Vandy's and their ilk, that we have "improved". I, for one, do NOT see that as "improvement".



I hear you, but hold on, you're putting alot of words in my mouth there. I used the "number of losses" as sort of a barometer of our success (or lack of it) last year. Of course I look at all those other things too, everybody on this board does.

I for one don't think we'll lose ten next year. I think the SEC reg. season title (the real one) will be tough, but the tourn. title within reason. But of course since this "is Kentucky" I doEXPECT to win both, and will be dissapointed if we don't. I will also be dissapointed if we don't win the national title, regardless of which round we were eliminated.

[lribookend]

We lost our point guard to the NBA. I was not a Rondo fan, but his rebounding, drives to the basket, and even an occasional "buzzer beater" are gone. Sparks had trouble defensively. But when he was hot, he was hard to stop. Our starting back court is gone. We lost Ravi Moss, who apparently did some great things for the team, or else the head coach should be questioned for playing him so much. We lost the tallest player in KY history, although also one of the slowest. We lost a 3 point shooter in Lemaster. We lost a 4 year, Mr KY Basketball in Brandon Stockton. We lost what we all thought would be a player who would eclipse the scoring of Chuck Hayes in Rekalin Sims. Adam Williams was a non-factor.

But, in spite of those losses, we are gong to be better? How? Perry had a few outstanding games. Thomas had a few. Bradley was inconsistent. Crawford played "quietly" in many games. Carter hardly ever got in the game. Morris continued to get in foul trouble. We have a question mark at the 4 spot. Sure, chemistry will be better. But our bench will be younger than I can ever remember.I think we are going to have 5 losses before conference play begins. Florida and Tennessee alone could result in 4 conference losses. South Carolina looks good. Georgia will be improved. I just don't see where we are going to get our improvement, except for a "hope" that freshmen will be big contributors. I thought the freshmen would be great in 1974/75. Jack Givins, my classmate at Bryan Station H.S. had his first shot as a Freshman BLOCKED from behind. Mike Phillips couldn't run up and down the court. Rick Robey gave some solid minutes. James Lee seldom got in a game his freshman year. Yes, 4 years later, they one a NC. FOUR YEARS LATER!

When Morris, Crawford, Rondo and Bradley arrived, I thought we were looking at some Final Four's. I was wrong. High School success does NOT equal college success. Unless your name is Carmelo Anthony, most freshmen do NOT make a huge impact at the college level.

I am preparing for another 10+ loss season. I hope I am wrong.

[Will Lavender]

lribookend wrote: We lost our point guard to the NBA. I was not a Rondo fan, but his rebounding, drives to the basket, and even an occasional "buzzer beater" are gone. Sparks had trouble defensively. But when he was hot, he was hard to stop. Our starting back court is gone. We lost Ravi Moss, who apparently did some great things for the team, or else the head coach should be questioned for playing him so much. We lost the tallest player in KY history, although also one of the slowest. We lost a 3 point shooter in Lemaster. We lost a 4 year, Mr KY Basketball in Brandon Stockton. We lost what we all thought would be a player who would eclipse the scoring of Chuck Hayes in Rekalin Sims. Adam Williams was a non-factor.


I think that's putting the players we lost in too favorable of a light.

You sort of make these guys out to seem like their leaving drove a void into the program.

There's a reason why some of these guys aren't with this team.

[lribookend]

I agree, Will. I just wanted to point out that they were all heralded to some degree,at some point in their recruiting/playing days at UK.All had limited success after they arrived. But suddenly, some fans think the incoming freshmen this year will all be superstars. Why the disconnect???? Why is this year's class qualitatively different than the Junior or Senior Class? Why did the #1 recruiting class (Next year's Junior Class) not have a more favorable impact? And why should we expect a lower rated class to be better? Just asking.

[Aike]

We have had several freshman make huge impacts just since Tubby Smith arrived. Rondo, Fitch, Hayes, Bogans, Prince, among others spring to mind.

I don't expect next year's freshman to lead us to a title, but I do expect them to play important roles on the team.

Now, back to that junior class. I feel like a properly motivated Morris, Crawford, and Bradley can form the core of a terrific team. I don't think it is far-fetched that if those three come to play from day one, consistently play 30 minutes per game, and play at their best positions, then we could have a special run.

Some of our best seasons under Tubby have been as a result of the little differences in close games. Junior and Senior leadership, and understanding of how to execute the system, make the difference in those type of games.

lribookend wrote: I agree, Will. I just wanted to point out that they were all heralded to some degree,at some point in their recruiting/playing days at UK.All had limited success after they arrived. But suddenly, some fans think the incoming freshmen this year will all be superstars. Why the disconnect???? Why is this year's class qualitatively different than the Junior or Senior Class? Why did the #1 recruiting class (Next year's Junior Class) not have a more favorable impact? And why should we expect a lower rated class to be better? Just asking.

[RaleighCat]

The fact that Alleyne, Sims, Stockton and LeMaster are not on the team is a reason to be optimistic. Alleyne didn't want to be a Wildcat, or he would've gone to class. Sims wasn't the player we envisioned. Stockton and LeMaster were loyal soldiers who gave us brief benefits over four years. They were great kids, but destined to be role players.

Rondo and Moss will be hard to replace. Rondo for his sheer athletic talent and production. Moss for his moxie and ability to hit big shots when needed.

I like the potential in this year's squad quite a lot. Several things have to fall into place for us to even win the SEC East. But the personnel and leadership should be better top to bottom.

[Will Lavender]

RaleighCat wrote: The fact that Alleyne, Sims, Stockton and LeMaster are not on the team is a reason to be optimistic. Alleyne didn't want to be a Wildcat, or he would've gone to class. Sims wasn't the player we envisioned. Stockton and LeMaster were loyal soldiers who gave us brief benefits over four years. They were great kids, but destined to be role players.

Rondo and Moss will be hard to replace. Rondo for his sheer athletic talent and production. Moss for his moxie and ability to hit big shots when needed.

I like the potential in this year's squad quite a lot. Several things have to fall into place for us to even win the SEC East. But the personnel and leadership should be better top to bottom.

I agree, RC.

There are certainly some players who are no longer here that we're going to miss. Rajon and Patrick had good seasons last year even though the team struggled; there was a time in February when Patrick Sparks was playing extremely well.

But look: that team was average at best. They lost 13 games, and there was a reason for that.

I'm thinking addition by subtraction, but it all depends on how the new guys (Meeks, Jasper) and the old-new guys (Bradley, Crawford) have improved this summer.

[Coldstream]

Will Lavender wrote: RaleighCat wrote: The fact that Alleyne, Sims, Stockton and LeMaster are not on the team is a reason to be optimistic. Alleyne didn't want to be a Wildcat, or he would've gone to class. Sims wasn't the player we envisioned. Stockton and LeMaster were loyal soldiers who gave us brief benefits over four years. They were great kids, but destined to be role players.

Rondo and Moss will be hard to replace. Rondo for his sheer athletic talent and production. Moss for his moxie and ability to hit big shots when needed.

I like the potential in this year's squad quite a lot. Several things have to fall into place for us to even win the SEC East. But the personnel and leadership should be better top to bottom.

I agree, RC.

There are certainly some players who are no longer here that we're going to miss. Rajon and Patrick had good seasons last year even though the team struggled; there was a time in February when Patrick Sparks was playing extremely well.

But look: that team was average at best. They lost 13 games, and there was a reason for that.

I'm thinking addition by subtraction, but it all depends on how the new guys (Meeks, Jasper) and the old-new guys (Bradley, Crawford) have improved this summer.

I agree with you Will but I would add that it also depends how quickly the new players can grasp the system. It seems to take freshmen awhile to get a good handle on the system to be able to stay on the floor long enough to make their presence felt. I don't expect them to know it like the Sophs/Juniors/etc. but they need to learn it at good rate as opposed to struggling with it to the point they are behind compared to past freshmen.

[RaleighCat]

Coldstream wrote: Will Lavender wrote: RaleighCat wrote: The fact that Alleyne, Sims, Stockton and LeMaster are not on the team is a reason to be optimistic. Alleyne didn't want to be a Wildcat, or he would've gone to class. Sims wasn't the player we envisioned. Stockton and LeMaster were loyal soldiers who gave us brief benefits over four years. They were great kids, but destined to be role players.

Rondo and Moss will be hard to replace. Rondo for his sheer athletic talent and production. Moss for his moxie and ability to hit big shots when needed.

I like the potential in this year's squad quite a lot. Several things have to fall into place for us to even win the SEC East. But the personnel and leadership should be better top to bottom.

I agree, RC.

There are certainly some players who are no longer here that we're going to miss. Rajon and Patrick had good seasons last year even though the team struggled; there was a time in February when Patrick Sparks was playing extremely well.

But look: that team was average at best. They lost 13 games, and there was a reason for that.

I'm thinking addition by subtraction, but it all depends on how the new guys (Meeks, Jasper) and the old-new guys (Bradley, Crawford) have improved this summer.

I agree with you Will but I would add that it also depends how quickly the new players can grasp the system. It seems to take freshmen awhile to get a good handle on the system to be able to stay on the floor long enough to make their presence felt. I don't expect them to know it like the Sophs/Juniors/etc. but they need to learn it at good rate as opposed to struggling with it to the point they are behind compared to past freshmen.
Then Tubby would be "forced" into a much tighter rotation than normal. Again, not a bad thing, IMHO. We really only have 7 players coming back who know the system- only two are guards (Bradley/Crawford). We'll need the frosh to step in quickly, especially in the backcourt. I forsee one or two of them to have Gerald Fitch-type freshmen years. Fitch earned time by hitting the glass, playing D and hustling. That's more than OK for Tubby's system.

[RCS]

We don't need the FR to be superstars, just contributers. Lots of FR have contributed at UK under Tubby. An inexperienced bench is no reason to get worried IMO. Almost all benches are inexperienced. That is where your FR and SO should be. We will have 3 JRs and probably 2 SRs starting. That is a lot of experience. Duke never plays more than 7 guys so I don't worry too much about that.

I don't think you can just look at what we lost and say woe is me. Sparks played like crap the first part of last year and was a liability on D his entier career here. I think we will miss his shooting and ability to make shots, but he is far from irreplacible. Rondo was the most talented guy on the team, but his weaknesses hurt this team. His man was constantly doubling Morris since Rondo couldn't shoot. It killed the flow of the offense. I think Bradley can give you decent PG play and is certainly a better shooter. It is a drop off, no doubt, but not as sharp as some would have you believe. Moss had a terrible year last year. He never should have been more than a role player. He was a great walk on and hit a lot of big shots, but he was not a 25+ minute a game player, or at least he shouldn't have been. Sims, Shag, etc. never played anyway. Our best players are now JRs and should be primed and ready to lead this team. Maybe they won't but I think it is more likely that they will, hence the optimism.

[poodoo]

Rondo was the most talented guy on the team, but his weaknesses hurt this team. His man was constantly doubling Morris since Rondo couldn't shoot. It killed the flow of the offense. QUOTE by RCS

________

Bingo, RCS. Last season Rondo was accused of far more than he was responsible for in actuality, in my opinion. That criticism, though, is so valid and is indeed a reason that our overalloffense should be improved this year, even though Rondo's presence will be missed in other ways. That was Rajon Rondo's weakness. Unfortunately, he had reportedly been hitting well from the outside in practices, but that sharpness was usually not seen in games and allowed his defender to back off him, as you said. :(Excellent point in these eyes. :)

[trublue4life]

RaleighCat wrote: Coldstream wrote: Will Lavender wrote: RaleighCat wrote: The fact that Alleyne, Sims, Stockton and LeMaster are not on the team is a reason to be optimistic. Alleyne didn't want to be a Wildcat, or he would've gone to class. Sims wasn't the player we envisioned. Stockton and LeMaster were loyal soldiers who gave us brief benefits over four years. They were great kids, but destined to be role players.

Rondo and Moss will be hard to replace. Rondo for his sheer athletic talent and production. Moss for his moxie and ability to hit big shots when needed.

I like the potential in this year's squad quite a lot. Several things have to fall into place for us to even win the SEC East. But the personnel and leadership should be better top to bottom.

I agree, RC.

There are certainly some players who are no longer here that we're going to miss. Rajon and Patrick had good seasons last year even though the team struggled; there was a time in February when Patrick Sparks was playing extremely well.

But look: that team was average at best. They lost 13 games, and there was a reason for that.

I'm thinking addition by subtraction, but it all depends on how the new guys (Meeks, Jasper) and the old-new guys (Bradley, Crawford) have improved this summer.

I agree with you Will but I would add that it also depends how quickly the new players can grasp the system. It seems to take freshmen awhile to get a good handle on the system to be able to stay on the floor long enough to make their presence felt. I don't expect them to know it like the Sophs/Juniors/etc. but they need to learn it at good rate as opposed to struggling with it to the point they are behind compared to past freshmen.
Then Tubby would be "forced" into a much tighter rotation than normal. Again, not a bad thing, IMHO. We really only have 7 players coming back who know the system- only two are guards (Bradley/Crawford). We'll need the frosh to step in quickly, especially in the backcourt. I forsee one or two of them to have Gerald Fitch-type freshmen years. Fitch earned time by hitting the glass, playing D and hustling. That's more than OK for Tubby's system.

But one thing going for this year's freshman is they come in with a reputation of already being "d" minded. With Patrick, and even Rondo, appreciation for defense had to be taught. Rondo got a lot of steals off of sheer athletic ability but his basic man-to-man skills left something to be desired. He often was out of position and needed help from the post when is man got by him when he didn't get the steal with his initial move. Patrick was just not quick enough to guard a lot of guys straight up. Another departed player, Sims, was one of the worst defensive players I've ever seen, plus he really had no desire to get better not to mention how the injury slowed him down. In other words, it's not a great stretch to think that Jasper, Meeks, Porter & Stevenson will not take long to be an improvement over what we lost on the defensive end of the floor, IMO. Each player publicly stated an affinity for defense even in high school, which I'm confident is one of the main reasons Tubby recruited these guys.

[SamKat]

I'm optimistic about the 2006-2007 team. I was also about the 2005-2006 team.

Iribookend's thread has brought out so many good points and I go with the optimists' side:

Scott Holsopple- Strength Training Coach

Morris improved

Morris, Crawford and Bradley juniors with experience

Carter improving

Bobby Perry improved. I've liked Bobby even when he was missing the crib shots, although I didn't like seeing him miss them

Coach Smith with his back to the wall

Etc, etc.

I'd like to see Heretic's and curlycat's take on the upcoming season at this point in time.

[lribookend]

RCS wrote: Duke never plays more than 7 guys so I don't worry too much about that.




Maybe Duke's top 7 are a little better than our top 7.

[ukbob]

lribookend wrote: RCS wrote: Duke never plays more than 7 guys so I don't worry too much about that.




Maybe Duke's top 7 are a little better than our top 7.


Maybe not.

We shall see in time. It will only matter one time next season and that is when and if we play Duke. We need to beat the teams on our schedule.

[Will Lavender]

lribookend wrote: RCS wrote: Duke never plays more than 7 guys so I don't worry too much about that.




Maybe Duke's top 7 are a little better than our top 7.

I don't think so.

[poodoo]

SamKat wrote: I'm optimistic about the 2006-2007 team. I was also about the 2005-2006 team.

Iribookend's thread has brought out so many good points and I go with the optimists' side:

Scott Holsopple- Strength Training Coach

Morris improved

Morris, Crawford and Bradley juniors with experience

Carter improving

Bobby Perry improved. I've liked Bobby even when he was missing the crib shots, although I didn't like seeing him miss them

Coach Smith with his back to the wall

Etc, etc.

I'd like to see Heretic's and curlycat's take on the upcoming season at this point in time.



This post makes me happy, SamKat. With that smile I had seen in your book (besides the content within the book)and at the tailgate, I had felt that you were a fan who tends to be OPTIMISTIC, as do I. :)We have one in our midst who LOVES UK basketball just as much as we do (and one we both like and respect :)), but sincerely believes that we will never go to another Final Four while Tubby Smith is our coach. I had just read a thread in which I was afraid he had convinced you of the same, and that had made me sad. I have honestly just breathed a sigh of relief. :D

[SamKat]

I believe that "one" would acqiuiesce to Tubby if he would bring a "succesful" basketball season in 2006-2007, Poodoo. Dave may not go much farther than the coming season though, in acquiescing. He isn't alone in that, and I'm not much farther behind him.

[FrogtownRoadCat]

We have one in our midst who LOVES UK basketball just as much as we do but sincerely believes that we will never go to another Final Four while Tubby Smith is our coach.

That person holds a very insightful belief. The failure for (how many?) years to recognize the need for upgrading the strength and conditioning program caused me to lose all faith in Coach Smith. Once could trace many of the program's deficiencies over the past several seasons to the team's poor conditioning, lack of mental toughness, undisciplined approach, and seemingly inability to get along, all of which result, at least in large part,froma piss poor conditioning program. On one hand, I'm very encouraged by the hiring of a new drill sergeant; on the other hand, I'm highly upset that it took this long. Count me in the camp who continues to root for the UK program, but who believes that a fresh approach is sorely needed and warranted.

Might this be the first decade without a final four appearance? The next three seasons will tell, buta review ofthe rosterand prospective recruiting indicates thatthis seasonwould seem to be the best shot and, from my perspective, it doesn't look like a terribly good one.

Go Big Blue.

[graham51]

We have one in our midst who LOVES UK basketball just as much as we do but sincerely believes that we will never go to another Final Four while Tubby Smith is our coach.


You can up the count to at least two (2).

[Spanish Moss]

graham51 wrote: We have one in our midst who LOVES UK basketball just as much as we do but sincerely believes that we will never go to another Final Four while Tubby Smith is our coach.


You can up the count to at least two (2).


When you talk to people "off the air" you find that number is very large. A lot of UK fans will not go on a message board and say what is in their heart when it comes to Tubby Smith. The facts are he did not set the woods on fire when he coached at Tulsa or Georgia. He had nice programs but they were far from championship calibre.
Personally, I do not expect less than 10 losses or a finish higher than 3rd in the SEC East. Anything better than that and I will celebrate the season as a huge success.

When you look at Coach Smith's record since he came to Lexington it is hard to be optimistic. He has had four seasons with 10 or more losses and any talk of UK being an elite program today is pure living in the past. We are still a good program but far from a great one. When you compare us today with our history over the past 100 years, we are a little below average.

We need to keep it real until it is obvious we can compete with the big schools. We are not there today.

[delkfor3]

One thing that I have learned during Tubby's time at UK is that, it's nearly impossible to predict how his UK teams will perform. What you expect out of one of his teams, usually ends up being the oposite. I thought the 02' and 06' teams should have been Final Four teams, but they turned out not to be. I'm not optomistic, nor am I expecting a disaster, all we can do is let the season play out.

[Spanish Moss]

delkfor3 wrote: One thing that I have learned during Tubby's time at UK is that, it's nearly impossible to predict how his UK teams will perform. What you expect out of one of his teams, usually ends up being the oposite. I thought the 02' and 06' teams should have been Final Four teams, but they turned out not to be. I'm not optomistic, nor am I expecting a disaster, all we can do is let the season play out.
Well said delkfor3. I like to be realistic when it comes to these things and like you said, who knows what to expect? Based on Tubby's history, the odds are we will have 10 losses. Now that I said that, maybe we will have a banner year. Who knows????

[poodoo]

That "one in our midst" was simply said to SamKat not to draw attention to the person to which I was referring :)(althoughthat person, whom I consider a friend,has repeatedly stated herethat Tubby Smith will NOT take us to another Final Four, so I guess I could have simply stated his name :)).

How many of you who have posted here are willing to go that far? Are you willing to post here, like Dave, that Tubby Smith will NOT take us to another Final Four, period? I'm curious.

Sure, we had a bad season LAST YEAR. Sure, we have had some recruiting misses at the power forward position that have hurt this basketball program. YET, the PREVIOUS season we were ONE BOUNCE, one anything (including a called foul when Patrick Sparks was hit when he made that three-pointer that took us into overtime) away from making it to a Final Four with Tubby Smith's having THREE new starters, including TWO freshmen.

For me, even though I have been disappointed with a couple of recruiting classes and the team's performance last year, there is NO WAY that I can look at that evidence I just posted, plus our having the top ranked team in the nation (final AP poll)bothTWOandTHREE seasons ago, and say that Tubby Smith will NOT take us to another Final Four. That doesn't sound logical to me.To each his own, I guess. :)

Personally, while I naturally have some concerns after last season's performanceAND UNTIL we actually sign a top class this year (although ITHINK itwill happen), I happen to see ONE bad season among THREE other impressive ones, along with three regional final losses under Tubby. It seems to me that the odds are in favor of Tubby's getting us to another Final Four soon, instead of narrowly missing again.

Who knows (and surely everyone hopes I'm right!)! :)I do know that I am PASSIONATE, though, and that being passionate about UK basketball does NOT mean that one MUSTthink Tubby Smith can NOT get us to another Final Four. :)ALL of us are PASSIONATE about UK basketball, regardless how CLOSE we are to giving up on Tubby Smith, or not giving up. Again, personally, I am cautiously optimistic about the 2006-2007 season. :)

[poodoo]

SamKat wrote: I believe that "one" would acqiuiesce to Tubby if he would bring a "succesful" basketball season in 2006-2007, Poodoo. Dave may not go much farther than the coming season though, in acquiescing. He isn't alone in that, and I'm not much farther behind him.

SamKat, I've been defending Dave herefor a long time herein regard to his WANTING Tubby to be successful. :)I've often said that ALL Dave wants is a winning program, just like we all do. On the tailgate thread you posted that I NOW know blueheretic has a "gentle" side. I had suspected that even before I met Dave last year, but knew for sure after meeting him. :)

It seems you thinkblueheretic andI are at "war" or something. No way! :DHowever, I still breathea sigh of relief thatyou have not joined him (although you say you are not far behind him) in thinking there is NO WAY Tubby evertakes us to another Final Four. That's all.:DIF Tubby does take us back, too, we will ALL behappy, which is all that matters! :)

[DCWildcat]

Spanish Moss wrote: graham51 wrote: We have one in our midst who LOVES UK basketball just as much as we do but sincerely believes that we will never go to another Final Four while Tubby Smith is our coach.


You can up the count to at least two (2).


When you talk to people "off the air" you find that number is very large. A lot of UK fans will not go on a message board and say what is in their heart when it comes to Tubby Smith. The facts are he did not set the woods on fire when he coached at Tulsa or Georgia. He had nice programs but they were far from championship calibre.
Personally, I do not expect less than 10 losses or a finish higher than 3rd in the SEC East. Anything better than that and I will celebrate the season as a huge success.

When you look at Coach Smith's record since he came to Lexington it is hard to be optimistic. He has had four seasons with 10 or more losses and any talk of UK being an elite program today is pure living in the past. We are still a good program but far from a great one. When you compare us today with our history over the past 100 years, we are a little below average.

We need to keep it real until it is obvious we can compete with the big schools. We are not there today.

The problem with an argument like this is that I can spin it 180 degrees and make it ring just as true. That's not a good thing.

The facts are he did not set the woods on fire when he coached at Tulsa or Georgia. He had nice programs but they were far from championship calibre.

Huh? Coach K didn't turn Army into a championship calibre team, Izzo didn't turn Northern Michigan into a championship calibre team, and Pitino didn't turn Boston University or Providence into championship calibre teams.

What does that have to do with anything?

When you look at Coach Smith's record since he came to Lexington it is hard to be optimistic. He has had four seasons with 10 or more losses and any talk of UK being an elite program today is pure living in the past.

It's amazing that people keep pointing to this arbitrary number 10 like it's some sort of godly tell all figure. It's not. It's simply a way of showcasing a point (LOOK TUBBY BAD) that isn't representative of the whole truth (Tubby's stellar win loss record).

I fail to see how a program that came within inches of two final fours, and dominated win loss charts, and had a poor season suddenly makes us "mediocre."

Bizzare, sudden occurrences...Bogans busting his ankle, UAB playing the game of their life, Dwayne Wade suddenly becomming Dwayne Wade...do not tell the whole story. They don't tell a chapter of it. They tell a sentence that gets blown out of proportion by the prestige of the NCAA Tournament.

It's not a good barometer for success. It's just not. Prestige has a weak correlation with teams' actual ability. Accept it. Embrace it. Bemoan it, maybe, but realize that it's the truth. Just because something is prestigious doesn't mean it's completely associated with skill.

[justford]

One thing that has to help is having quality people to practice against.

[ukfanman]

Unlike a great many people who have chosen to take the gloom and doom approach to this season, I will be mostcontent to sit back and watch it unfold.

After 42 years as a fan, I have long realized that it's just a game, the world does not end when we lose and there are far more important things in life than worrying about Kentucky basketball. That said, I think this team will supprise a great many of you.

[Spanish Moss]

DCWildcat wrote:The problem with an argument like this is that I can spin it 180 degrees and make it ring just as true. That's not a good thing.

The facts are he did not set the woods on fire when he coached at Tulsa or Georgia. He had nice programs but they were far from championship calibre.

Huh? Coach K didn't turn Army into a championship calibre team, Izzo didn't turn Northern Michigan into a championship calibre team, and Pitino didn't turn Boston University or Providence into championship calibre teams.

What does that have to do with anything?

When you look at Coach Smith's record since he came to Lexington it is hard to be optimistic. He has had four seasons with 10 or more losses and any talk of UK being an elite program today is pure living in the past.

It's amazing that people keep pointing to this arbitrary number 10 like it's some sort of godly tell all figure. It's not. It's simply a way of showcasing a point (LOOK TUBBY BAD) that isn't representative of the whole truth (Tubby's stellar win loss record).

I fail to see how a program that came within inches of two final fours, and dominated win loss charts, and had a poor season suddenly makes us "mediocre."

Bizzare, sudden occurrences...Bogans busting his ankle, UAB playing the game of their life, Dwayne Wade suddenly becomming Dwayne Wade...do not tell the whole story. They don't tell a chapter of it. They tell a sentence that gets blown out of proportion by the prestige of the NCAA Tournament.

It's not a good barometer for success. It's just not. Prestige has a weak correlation with teams' actual ability. Accept it. Embrace it. Bemoan it, maybe, but realize that it's the truth. Just because something is prestigious doesn't mean it's completely associated with skill.

If your goal is to be just another team that wins a few more than it loses, then I will concede your points. If your goal is to be a Top 5 program that has a legitimate shot at the Final Four most years, then you might want to reconsider your position.

As far as correlations and barometers, I am not into that. I do not apply scientific theory to my basketball program. I apply results. Ten loss seasons are a matter of record and ten loss seasons have been very rare in the 100 year history of Kentucky basketball prior to the arrival of Tubby Smith. An elite program would not accept such results.

[Art Vandelay]

DCWildcat wrote: Spanish Moss wrote: graham51 wrote: We have one in our midst who LOVES UK basketball just as much as we do but sincerely believes that we will never go to another Final Four while Tubby Smith is our coach.


You can up the count to at least two (2).


When you talk to people "off the air" you find that number is very large. A lot of UK fans will not go on a message board and say what is in their heart when it comes to Tubby Smith. The facts are he did not set the woods on fire when he coached at Tulsa or Georgia. He had nice programs but they were far from championship calibre.
Personally, I do not expect less than 10 losses or a finish higher than 3rd in the SEC East. Anything better than that and I will celebrate the season as a huge success.

When you look at Coach Smith's record since he came to Lexington it is hard to be optimistic. He has had four seasons with 10 or more losses and any talk of UK being an elite program today is pure living in the past. We are still a good program but far from a great one. When you compare us today with our history over the past 100 years, we are a little below average.

We need to keep it real until it is obvious we can compete with the big schools. We are not there today.

The problem with an argument like this is that I can spin it 180 degrees and make it ring just as true. That's not a good thing.

The facts are he did not set the woods on fire when he coached at Tulsa or Georgia. He had nice programs but they were far from championship calibre.

Huh? Coach K didn't turn Army into a championship calibre team, Izzo didn't turn Northern Michigan into a championship calibre team, and Pitino didn't turn Boston University or Providence into championship calibre teams.

What does that have to do with anything?

When you look at Coach Smith's record since he came to Lexington it is hard to be optimistic. He has had four seasons with 10 or more losses and any talk of UK being an elite program today is pure living in the past.

It's amazing that people keep pointing to this arbitrary number 10 like it's some sort of godly tell all figure. It's not. It's simply a way of showcasing a point (LOOK TUBBY BAD) that isn't representative of the whole truth (Tubby's stellar win loss record).

I fail to see how a program that came within inches of two final fours, and dominated win loss charts, and had a poor season suddenly makes us "mediocre."

Bizzare, sudden occurrences...Bogans busting his ankle, UAB playing the game of their life, Dwayne Wade suddenly becomming Dwayne Wade...do not tell the whole story. They don't tell a chapter of it. They tell a sentence that gets blown out of proportion by the prestige of the NCAA Tournament.

It's not a good barometer for success. It's just not. Prestige has a weak correlation with teams' actual ability. Accept it. Embrace it. Bemoan it, maybe, but realize that it's the truth. Just because something is prestigious doesn't mean it's completely associated with skill.

Pitino did, in fact, build a championship caliber team at Providence. He took Providence to the final four with Billy D as his point guard. Pitino has now taken Providence, Kentucky, and Louisville to final fours.

Tubby has only managed a trip to the final four once in his career and, of course, that was his first season with Rick's players.

[RaleighCat]

Think back to Tubby's resume when he took the Kentucky job: he had guided Tulsa to the Sweet 16 and then GA to the Sweet 16. Feats not accomplished much, and very respectful at the time. I was one Cat fan who thought- "If Tubby can get Tulsa and GA to the Sweet 16, imagine what he can do at Kentucky."

Turns out Tubby can win a National Championship, get to the Elite Eight, Sweet 16 and 2nd round. That's a wide spectrum of accomplishment. It's not really about "What can Tubby accomplish at UK?" It's more about "How consistent can Tubby be at UK?" For many fans the gripe with Tubby is his consistent inconsistency. Let's see how this season plays out and go from there. I'm ready for some basketball.

[SamKat]

Please Keep up your positive vibes, Poodoo. I think something that has to be observed about this mostly positive fan base at WCN is that:

ukgrad's thread- "Why am I optimistic about this season" began Sept. 20, lasted only one page, had 5 replies, 310 views, and the moist recent response was Sept. 23.

In contrast:

Iribookend's thread- "It's hard to be optimistic about 2006-2007" began Sept. 17th, has four pages of posts , 74 replies , 1539 views and posters are still commenting today.

Both thread starters are fine UK fans.

Even this "optimistic and conservative group of fans" apparently have some doubts.

I'm one who wouldn't argue with Tubby's or Pitino's record prior to becoming UK's head coach. It is after and with Coach Tubby's own recruits that causes my doubts.
It is also the ten loss seasons and the repeat of the Team Turmoil team last season that brought up doubts by me.

Of course, it cast negative dispersions on my book- Cyber-Cat Fans Kentucky Basketball 2005-2006. You and all of the others who have the book liked it anyway, thank you, but we all had reasons to expect a good 2005-2006 season, didn't we. I faced a year's recordings when, at 73 year's old, I started the book.

Even though it reflects on his job and reputation, I believe Tubby should open up more to this wonderful group of fans who have honest doubts. Sure it would be tough, but he is tough, just a little stubborn like me.

[lribookend]

RaleighCat wrote: Think back to Tubby's resume when he took the Kentucky job: he had guided Tulsa to the Sweet 16 and then GA to the Sweet 16. Feats not accomplished much, and very respectful at the time. I was one Cat fan who thought- "If Tubby can get Tulsa and GA to the Sweet 16, imagine what he can do at Kentucky."

Turns out Tubby can win a National Championship, get to the Elite Eight, Sweet 16 and 2nd round. That's a wide spectrum of accomplishment. It's not really about "What can Tubby accomplish at UK?" It's more about "How consistent can Tubby be at UK?" For many fans the gripe with Tubby is his consistent inconsistency. Let's see how this season plays out and go from there. I'm ready for some basketball.


It seems this post will not die. Who started this thing, anyway? OOPS, I DID! I would like to thank all who haveposted. We do not agree on much, except that we want UK to bevery successful insports. RaleighCat, I think the problem is that Tubby's accomplishmentsat UK STARTED OUT with a National Championship hisfirst year. Many of us expected an occasional Final 4 in the ensuing 10 years, (especially since we have had some very high seedings during that time), but no cigar.

Also, the point about 10 losses being a recent phenomenon obviously doesn't take into account the fact that we play more games today than we did in the 1960's.... At least, it seems that way. There werefar fewer tournaments in the pre-conference schedule back then, and there was no SEC tournament for many years. And didn't theNCAAtournamentonly invite 24 teams (or less) at some point? Maybe they only invited 16 teams early on, I don'tremember for sure. (someone please help on thispoint).

Anyway, Kentucky was the dominant SEC basketball school for suchavery long time. We had the biggest arena, the nicest facilities, the second most national championships (after UCLA),we selected the players we wanted (and often they came). We were definitely one of the few ELITE teams in the nation.

Those who sense that our program is no longer viewed asELITE have a valid point. The SEC has caught up in terms of coaching, facilities, and recruiting. So we suffer more SEC losses than we did in the past. The losses hurt our seeding in the NCAA tourney. We have to win more games to win the NCAA championship than when there were fewer teams in the tournament.

But still, we have the budget, the arena, the (new) practice facility, the tradition, the media exposure, the fan base........ we have everything to consistently be a top 10 program that makes it to the final four every 3 or 4 years, and to the championship game every 8 or 10 years. So if we are currently ranked#23 (or #33) or whatever starting out a new season,something is wrong. We need to correct it.

Someone correct me here, but is this the first year that the UK women's Basketball team has been rated higher in the preseason polls than the men's team? Just wondering.

[Will Lavender]

RaleighCat wrote: Think back to Tubby's resume when he took the Kentucky job: he had guided Tulsa to the Sweet 16 and then GA to the Sweet 16. Feats not accomplished much, and very respectful at the time. I was one Cat fan who thought- "If Tubby can get Tulsa and GA to the Sweet 16, imagine what he can do at Kentucky."

Turns out Tubby can win a National Championship, get to the Elite Eight, Sweet 16 and 2nd round. That's a wide spectrum of accomplishment. It's not really about "What can Tubby accomplish at UK?" It's more about "How consistent can Tubby be at UK?" For many fans the gripe with Tubby is his consistent inconsistency. Let's see how this season plays out and go from there. I'm ready for some basketball.

Yeah. Best post on the thread.

Anybody who diminishes Tubby's accomplishments at Tulsa and Georgia doesn't know basketball. If you're taking schools like that to the Sweet 16, then you can coach.

And Tubby can coach. Period.

As others have said on this thread, it's his recruiting and management skills that are in question. Those two things have had the largest hand in causing the inconsistency, I think.

But DCWildcat makes a good point as well (he may have said this on another thread):

College basketball, unlike college football, is wildly unpredictable. One reason to be optimistic is that it's the nature of this sport for teams to come off of sub-par seasons and string together a Final Four year. It happens all the time, and it's one reason I love college basketball. It's become so bloody...manic. :D

[poodoo]

RaleighCat wrote: Think back to Tubby's resume when he took the Kentucky job: he had guided Tulsa to the Sweet 16 and then GA to the Sweet 16. Feats not accomplished much, and very respectful at the time. I was one Cat fan who thought- "If Tubby can get Tulsa and GA to the Sweet 16, imagine what he can do at Kentucky."

Turns out Tubby can win a National Championship, get to the Elite Eight, Sweet 16 and 2nd round. That's a wide spectrum of accomplishment. It's not really about "What can Tubby accomplish at UK?" It's more about "How consistent can Tubby be at UK?" For many fans the gripe with Tubby is his consistent inconsistency. Let's see how this season plays out and go from there. I'm ready for some basketball.

Excellent post, RaleighCat. Too, I especially agree with those last two sentences. :)

[poodoo]

Also, the point about 10 losses being a recent phenomenon obviously doesn't take into account the fact that we play more games today than we did in the 1960's.... At least, it seems that way. There werefar fewer tournaments in the pre-conference schedule back then, and there was no SEC tournament for many years. And didn't theNCAAtournamentonly invite 24 teams (or less) at some point? Maybe they only invited 16 teams early on, I don'tremember for sure. (someone please help on thispoint).

Anyway, Kentucky was the dominant SEC basketball school for suchavery long time. We had the biggest arena, the nicest facilities, the second most national championships (after UCLA),we selected the players we wanted (and often they came). We were definitely one of the few ELITE teams in the nation.

Those who sense that our program is no longer viewed asELITE have a valid point. The SEC has caught up in terms of coaching, facilities, and recruiting. So we suffer more SEC losses than we did in the past. The losses hurt our seeding in the NCAA tourney. We have to win more games to win the NCAA championship than when there were fewer teams in the tournament.

But still, we have the budget, the arena, the (new) practice facility, the tradition, the media exposure, the fan base........ we have everything to consistently be a top 10 program that makes it to the final four every 3 or 4 years, and to the championship game every 8 or 10 years. QUOTe by Iribookend

___________

You make a lot of excellent points in this post within the thread that you started, Iribookend. Like you, I don't get nearly as upset as some fans do with those double-digit loss seasons. As you say, we play more games now, and many of the SEC schools are catching up with us in recruiting, for whatever the reason, which is hurting.

Most of all, though, most of those double-digit-loss seasons were when Larry Ivy forced Tubby to play extremely tough schedules each year (based on what I have read). There was much discussion about Tubby's lack of input on the schedule. I KNOW that Rick Pitino refused to play some tough opponents, as I would listen to him explaining that playing and losing to thoseguys hurt seeding the NCAATourney. Tubby Smith didNOT have control of the schedule as did Pitino.

Not makingit to the Final Foursince '98 is a more legitimate concern, in my opinion. Yet, we have had some narrow misses that cause me, personally,still tohave faith in Tubby Smith's getting us back there again soon, which he must do.

Back to Larry Ivy and Tubby Smith andthe SEC's improved recruiting and its effect on the number of games we have lost, though. Please read what I share fromEric Crawford's comments about his visiting Memorial Coliseum (found in thebasketball recruiting forum). I remember howfans were wanting Tubbyfired when Mitch Barnhart came here. Barnhart supported Tubby and specifically referred to our need to get anew practicefacility, as other SEC teams had them (alongwith other teams in the nation)andthat we were being put at a disadvantage recruiting-wise.LarryIvy had REFUSED to listen to Tubby's concerns.

ThatCrawford column is an eye-opener, and even though I could not provide a link, I copied many of his comments as they so pertain to our discussions and concerns about thedirectionof the UK basketball program (and, specifically, recruiting). I hopeeveryone goes and reads that thread. I felt a lot more HOPE about the FUTURE of UK basketballas I read it, regardless of who is the head coach here. :)

[poodoo]

Please Keep up your positive vibes, Poodoo.QUOTE by SamKat

_______

Thanks, SamKat, and that I will surely do. :DWhile I will also share and discuss concerns, the "Doom and Gloom" stuff is definitely not me! :ggrin:

[DCWildcat]

If your goal is to be just another team that wins a few more than it loses, then I will concede your points. If your goal is to be a Top 5 program that has a legitimate shot at the Final Four most years, then you might want to reconsider your position. As far as correlations and barometers, I am not into that. I do not apply scientific theory to my basketball program. I apply results. Ten loss seasons are a matter of record and ten loss seasons have been very rare in the 100 year history of Kentucky basketball prior to the arrival of Tubby Smith. An elite program would not accept such results.
I fail to see how I suggested any of those things in my post.

Why are people so hostile to statistical analysis? All I'm doing is taking the numbers we all know and love--FG%, rebounds/game, assist/to ratio, etc., and making them

1. Not stupid

by way of making them

2. More accurate (controlling for extraneous variables)
3. More revealing (isolating relevant things instead of spewing interrelated stats that don't tell the whole story).

For example, an awful way to judge a guard's scoring ability is FG%. Why? Because if guard A score 50% of his points from 3's and guard B scores 30% of his points from 3's, and they score the same number of points, just using FG% is going to make guard A look worse.

I'm simply correcting that by giving proportionally correct credit for 3's.

Or when people throw around assist/turnover ratio. What does having a good assist/turnover ratio mean? Nothing, other than than that you have a good ratio of assists to turnovers. Wow, geez, that's useful. It makes a high assist, high turnover team look exactly the same as a low assist, low turnover team. 10/10 vs. 1/1 = 1A/TO each. There's no reason to include those together because it just skews the data.

I'm fixing that by separating them.

PPG is an awful measure of offense. It makes high tempo teams appear "better" than low tempo teams, even if they're exactly as efficient. And it depends heavily on your opponent's style of play--if their tempo goes up, so do your PPG.

I'm fixing that by using pace-independent measures.


What I'm doing isn't some crazy highfalutin mumbo jumbo designed to cover some inadequacy in my arguments. I'm using the same statistics that Dean Smith pioneered, Dean Oliver put into print, and that every NBA team's statistician looks at when analyzing a team.

Basketball is a complex game, and it's dangerous to oversimplify it. A good analyst will not do that; rather, he'll make the most accurate picture possible. After all, if you can't analyze basketball effectively, than what more merit do you have to give advice than Dick Vitale?

[Will Lavender]

Basketball is a tremendously complicated game, DC.

In fact, I think it's more complex and far more interesting than football -- which has been dubbed, incredibly, a "thinking man's sport."

But of course I'm biased. :D

[bluegrassking]

I believe those that put more stock into talent and scheme than chemistry as the primary reason for our problems last year will tend to be less optimistic.

Also, optimisim level will probably vary on how big a time frame is used to give context to last year's down season. Whole tenure folks will tend to be wait and see, last seven years (looking at when recruits brought into the program by Tubby took over) will tend to be the most negative, and those that are looking at the last four years, the most positive (seeing last year as unfortunate downturn after three pretty good years).

I'm in the middle group and see Tubby as inconsistent on too many fronts to have UK in position to compete for a championship every year. Folks like me have not seen the recruiting and team building required to maintain elite status under Smith.

To me it looks like our coach may have the X's and O's even if the scheme is not what I think is one that gives us the best chance to win it all, but lacks the organization, motivational skills, sales ability, and approach to build championship teams.

We do play more games than in the day of Rupp, so BOTH number of losses and number of wins becomes exagerated when either side makes their cases but it is hard to forget in 42 years versus nine Tubby has passed him already. Also, compared to the period of time from Hall until Tubby took over when there has been roughly the same number of games we had only seven ten loss seasons (two of them leading to and including probation).

This means that while the 10 loss barrier is exagerated, it should by no means be ignored as a warning sign. Historicly, UK teams have been more consistent and teams that drop double digit losses seldom if ever win a championship. By reaching this mark about half the time Tubby shows alarming inconsistancy if the goal is to every year put a squad on the floor that is capable of winning six straight to bring home a title.

Reality is the best team does not always win in this format, so to be an elite team you have to field a team almostEVERY SINGLEYEAR that has the capability to win against every style and personel matchup and hope that if you can always manage to get to the door and knock that sometimes you will get in.

Last year was proof that systemic problems with management, dealing with personel (and the accompaning egos), and adjusting were not erradicated but rather laying dormant. Tubby will not regain trust until he wins a title with his own recruited players along with recruiting well and to needs, or at least makes the Final Four a couple of times in 3 or 4 years, while doing the job on the recruiting circut,because until then his ability to build championship caliber teams will always be in doubt, and should be because that has to be concidered an unproven part of his resume as an elite coach.

Close or not (and I'd say only once in 05 have we actually been close, the one time where a bounce would have been the diffrence)it is undeniable that Tubby Smith has not yet recruited and built a team that has played in a Final Four. I think he is the only coach that is called an elite coach with this distinction. There are clearly those with less exposure, resources, and fansupport that have done more with less. Tubby has been given the tools and platform to prove he can be both regular contender and champion, it is in my opinion too kind to say he has capitalized as expected.

This year for the first time in my life (other than probation or surrounding it) that I am not optimistic that we have a shot to bring home the big hardware to Lexington, I am not one who usually has a down or even a wait and see attitude about the season. Thisnegativity is directly related to three issues; concerns about the overall talent 3-5, a high level of inexperience (at least playing a given position) despite having 3 junior and2 seniors assumably starting,and incredible doubts that the coach and his system are up to the task.

Some of us may be too concerned that the sky is falling but we are caught in a place really similar to a Chris Rock joke I like-If Bill Gates woke up with Oprah's money he'd be jumping out a window screaming he didn't have enough cash to pay for gas for his plane. We're used to the billions and though being a multi-milionaresounds great to a working stiff (rich is rich) it's a hell of a dropoff.

Tubby has us punching the clock at Ford (a nice paying job) as often as playing 18 holes at the country club (which can pay much better) but has not shown the abilty to generate wealth and get us to the penthouse (owning the country club) on his own.

Unemployment (not making the NCAA's) is not an option. Tubby has so far managed this much but won't have a united fanbase again until he keeps us off the assembly line, even if it is good work.

[BigblueDrew]

bluegrassking wrote: I believe those that put more stock into talent and scheme than chemistry as the primary reason for our problems last year will tend to be less optimistic.

Also, optimisim level will probably vary on how big a time frame is used to give context to last year's down season. Whole tenure folks will tend to be wait and see, last seven years (looking at when recruits brought into the program by Tubby took over) will tend to be the most negative, and those that are looking at the last four years, the most positive (seeing last year as unfortunate downturn after three pretty good years).

I'm in the middle group and see Tubby as inconsistent on too many fronts to have UK in position to compete for a championship every year. Folks like me have not seen the recruiting and team building required to maintain elite status under Smith.

To me it looks like our coach may have the X's and O's even if the scheme is not what I think is one that gives us the best chance to win it all, but lacks the organization, motivational skills, sales ability, and approach to build championship teams.

We do play more games than in the day of Rupp, so BOTH number of losses and number of wins becomes exagerated when either side makes their cases but it is hard to forget in 42 years versus nine Tubby has passed him already. Also, compared to the period of time from Hall until Tubby took over when there has been roughly the same number of games we had only seven ten loss seasons (two o