Unrealistic Expectations

[audacious1]

I'm sure all you parents out there can relate to this story. I was talking with my son a few years ago, he was8 at the time. We were talking about the NFL. He's been an avid fantasy football player since age6 and love to talk about the players and their points, especially players that were on his fantasy team.

So I asked him who his favorite was. He said L.T. (we were both big on him early, now he's absolutely blowing up). I said, "Yeah, he's pretty great." Then I asked, "Who else do you like?" And he said, "Mark Brunell." I was like, "Really? He's not that good." So defiantly he replied, "Yes his is. He's on my team."

I think there's a phenomenon where some people overvalue a player just because they are on the fan's team. It happens all the time here on WCN when you look at game score predictions where if the spread is Kentucky -4, our fans say things like, "We're going to win by 25!" or "It's all us baby, we'll win going away."

Re: our current team, I to was very disappointed by what looked like "giving up" in the 2nd half of the Memphis game, but we were the underdog and lost so we've actually done what we're supposed to do after 5 games, if you look at the odds.I still believe we're a Top30 program but if we're going to make a run in the tourney, there's some serious work ahead of us.

In my mind, it boils down to having realistic expections, and some of our fans think we should make the Final Four every year which is certifiable.

[Spanish Moss]

[BigblueDrew]

Spanish Moss wrote: You make some very good points. Some parts of your comments are very telling. You say the Cats are a Top 30 program. Man, that hurts but you are probably correct. But we hate to admit it.

I think the expectation of UK fans is diminishing over time. It has lost a lot of ground the past 10 years. 10 years ago we expected to be in the Top 3 in the nation and now we hope to improve from a Top 30 team and make it to the Top 20. The vast majority of our fans understand we have slipped and continue to slip. Sure we have those who refuse to see anythng but the Glory Road but these fans are like a frog in a pot of water with the heat being turned up. They don't have a clue. So we read their comments and go about our business.

I don't know anyone, other than the frogs in the pot, who think we will make it to a Final Four this year or anytime in the near future. If we find that special big man or two we may have a shot in three years, when our freshmen are seniors. But we have to improve our recruiting to have any shot at all. In other words, we have to have all the pieces to the puzzle. We are missing some important parts.

I am not a fan that expects a Final Four every year but I am a fan that expects our team to be competitive and it should be a rare game we lose by double digits. I can accept a five point loss to Memphis but we were embarrassed. I hate to see UK get embarrassed. We are the team that should do the embarrassing.

So we are no longer the toughest kid on the block. Rupp Arena is no longer feared by opponents and the KENTUCKY on our chest is just a word to the elite teams and programs. UNC sees us a team to fill their schedule, not a team to be concerned with. We were there once and we may get there again. Provided we find someone who can bring all the pieces of the puzzle to Lexington.

Be careful there Spanish Moss you are about to get branded as a "whiner" and told to find another team to follow.

[ukbob]

We should always have high expectations...always.

Each year has to play out but we should be fighting We should be fighting for Top 10 status, not Top 30. We should expected to compete for a high NCAA seed every single year and our goal should always be a minimum of a FF.

Now, realistically, it won't always happen. Things happen during the season and at the end of it. Luck always plays a part as well. Expectations should be tempered with reality and that should not interfere with pride in accomplishments should you come close but not over the top. Not every good team will get there each year.

I don't want our expectations to wane. But I also don't want our goals be set the point of ridiculous either so that when you fall short, the world is ending.

We are not considered in the mix as the "elite" anymore and that bothers me to no end. Doesn't mean we won't get there this year, but after last year, we need to desperately, IMO.

[Spanish Moss]

[KapitalCat]

We have been through this before but what the heck I'll jump in again :) UK fans do have unrealistic expections as do most fans of elite programs. It's tough to go from the team of the 90's to 22-13 and no final four in 8 seasons. At the same time, it's very hard to maintain excellence year in and year out, there are going to be down years, just ask UNC. But each year, we should expect to be in the top 20, every other year we should be in the top 10, and every third year we should be in the discussion for a final four, then every 4-6 years, it would be really nice to get to a final 4.

As far as history goes, since 1939-2006 when the final four started the top teams are:
NCAA Tournament Final Four Appearances
Rank School
# 1 North Carolina (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_North_Carolina_at_Chapel_Hill) 16
1 UCLA (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_California%2C_Los_Angeles) 16
3 Duke (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duke_University) 14
4 Kentucky (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kentucky_Wildcats) 13
5 Kansas (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/University_of_Kansas) 12
file:///C:/DOCUME%7E1/Family/LOCALS%7E1/Temp/moz-screenshot.jpg
Over the 68 season history UNC and UCLA have averaged a final four every 4 years, , Duke 5 years, KY 5.2 years and Kansas 5.7 years. Its time for Tubby to get KY to a final four. That is the bottom line and he best do it within two years. Just my opinion.

[I. Melvin]

Early returns indicate (to me, at least) that Tubby has enough offensive talent to turn in a strong year (2nd in the SEC East) and earning a 3-Seed in the NCAAs ...

... IF (big IF) this team commits to becoming an excellent defensive team.

If they don't, it's gonna look a whole lot like last year.

If they do, we'll enter March with a 3-seed and a shot to reach the Final Eight. I'd call that success and (if Randolph comes back and we land PP) a strong run to the Championship in '08.

Hmmm - lotta big IFs there ...

[SamKat]

I want to keep hoping and not lose my expectations for Kentucky Basketball. I feel the heat of the water about to boil around me SM, but I won't jump out . I'll probably become a dead UK fan frog. I think UK has far too much invested to allow that to happen to any of us fans.

[JohnJ]

Tre Pryor wrote: I think there's a phenomenon where some people overvalue a player just because they are on the fan's team.

I think there's a phenomenon where some people overvalue coaches too just because they are on a fan's team.

[delkfor3]

Spanish Moss wrote: You make some very good points. Some parts of your comments are very telling. You say the Cats are a Top 30 program. Man, that hurts but you are probably correct. But we hate to admit it.

I think the expectation of UK fans is diminishing over time. It has lost a lot of ground the past 10 years. 10 years ago we expected to be in the Top 3 in the nation and now we hope to improve from a Top 30 team and make it to the Top 20. The vast majority of our fans understand we have slipped and continue to slip. Sure we have those who refuse to see anythng but the Glory Road but these fans are like a frog in a pot of water with the heat being turned up. They don't have a clue. So we read their comments and go about our business.

I don't know anyone, other than the frogs in the pot, who think we will make it to a Final Four this year or anytime in the near future. If we find that special big man or two we may have a shot in three years, when our freshmen are seniors. But we have to improve our recruiting to have any shot at all. In other words, we have to have all the pieces to the puzzle. We are missing some important parts.

I am not a fan that expects a Final Four every year but I am a fan that expects our team to be competitive and it should be a rare game we lose by double digits. I can accept a five point loss to Memphis but we were embarrassed. I hate to see UK get embarrassed. We are the team that should do the embarrassing.

So we are no longer the toughest kid on the block. Rupp Arena is no longer feared by opponents and the KENTUCKY on our chest is just a word to the elite teams and programs. UNC sees us a team to fill their schedule, not a team to be concerned with. We were there once and we may get there again. Provided we find someone who can bring all the pieces of the puzzle to Lexington.

Spanish Moss my man, you keep waving that flag, because I am right there with you. I'll keep harping on this until our CATS are back where they belong, amoung the elite. I won't sit by and watch our program decline, and be quiet, I don't care who I anger while saying my piece!:X

[delkfor3]

BigblueDrew wrote:

Be careful there Spanish Moss you are about to get branded as a "whiner" and told to find another team to follow.
Or you'll be told to "give up your tickets" by other posters.

[Spanish Moss]

[delkfor3]

Spanish Moss, you knew mefrom the other site, and you know I was a big defender of Tubby Smith, but I can't defend what happened last season. It was "Team Turmoil II", after he promised it would never happen again. Tubby has won the NC before, so we know he can do it, so why isn't he doing the things to get us back there? Something's not right in Lexington right now, what it is, I haven't a clue.

[Stucat]

ukbob wrote: We should always have high expectations...always.

Each year has to play out but we should be fighting We should be fighting for Top 10 status, not Top 30. We should expected to compete for a high NCAA seed every single year and our goal should always be a minimum of a FF.

Now, realistically, it won't always happen. Things happen during the season and at the end of it. Luck always plays a part as well. Expectations should be tempered with reality and that should not interfere with pride in accomplishments should you come close but not over the top. Not every good team will get there each year.

I don't want our expectations to wane. But I also don't want our goals be set the point of ridiculous either so that when you fall short, the world is ending.

We are not considered in the mix as the "elite" anymore and that bothers me to no end. Doesn't mean we won't get there this year, but after last year, we need to desperately, IMO.




Amen to your post UKbob and other schools are picking up on this by the games that we stumble and fall in. I know last year on Gator Country one Floridafan branded us as "an old has been team." That kind of talk hurts but when you lose thirteen games in a season I guess I couldn't argue with the guy. All I could say was "Kentucky will be back."

I think we will do better this year than we did last year. At least I hope so as basketball is very hard to predict.:shrug:

[bret1555]

delkfor3 wrote: Spanish Moss, you knew mefrom the other site, and you know I was a big defender of Tubby Smith, but I can't defend what happened last season. It was "Team Turmoil II", after he promised it would never happen again. Tubby has won the NC before, so we know he can do it, so why isn't he doing the things to get us back there? Something's not right in Lexington right now, what it is, I haven't a clue.

I don't really thing "Team Turmoil II" is accurate. Although you are certainly not the only poster using this eupahmism for last year's team. While the 05-06 team certainly had its share of chemistry issues, it was nowhere near approaching the problems of "Team Turmoil." There were no off-court scrapes with the law, no DUIs, and no publicized on-flight fights. The ironic thing is that, on the court, "Team Turmoil" probably had better chemistry than last year's addition of the Cats.

While I am, like you, unhappy that the Cats did not perform well last season; I just don't think that it can be called a slide into the abyss of anonymity. . . The previous three years were great years for the Wildcats. In today's college basketball, we must accept that we simply must not fall into the "Final Four or bust" trap. No team or program can sustain such success. The problem, of course, is the mid-to-late nineties allowed us as fans to believe that National Championships are our birthright. The fact is that period was a sweet abberration, not the norm.

Meanwhile, it seems the current coach has recognized the problem, recruited a quality freshmen class, placed increased emphasis on conditioning, and pushed hard for a sterling 07 class. Once again, last year's disappointment was tough on fans, coaches, & players alike. . . I just don't believe that a return to notoreity under our current coach is unlikely. Last season didn't happen overnight, & it cannot be washed from our memories overnight, either. We won't know much about this team until January or February,let's have this discussion then.

[Stucat]

bret1555 wrote: delkfor3 wrote: Spanish Moss, you knew mefrom the other site, and you know I was a big defender of Tubby Smith, but I can't defend what happened last season. It was "Team Turmoil II", after he promised it would never happen again. Tubby has won the NC before, so we know he can do it, so why isn't he doing the things to get us back there? Something's not right in Lexington right now, what it is, I haven't a clue.

I don't really thing "Team Turmoil II" is accurate. Although you are certainly not the only poster using this eupahmism for last year's team. While the 05-06 team certainly had its share of chemistry issues, it was nowhere near approaching the problems of "Team Turmoil." There were no off-court scrapes with the law, no DUIs, and no publicized on-flight fights. The ironic thing is that, on the court, "Team Turmoil" probably had better chemistry than last year's addition of the Cats.

While I am, like you, unhappy that the Cats did not perform well last season; I just don't think that it can be called a slide into the abyss of anonymity. . . The previous three years were great years for the Wildcats. In today's college basketball, we must accept that we simply must not fall into the "Final Four or bust" trap. No team or program can sustain such success. The problem, of course, is the mid-to-late nineties allowed us as fans to believe that National Championships are our birthright. The fact is that period was a sweet abberration, not the norm.

Meanwhile, it seems the current coach has recognized the problem, recruited a quality freshmen class, placed increased emphasis on conditioning, and pushed hard for a sterling 07 class. Once again, last year's disappointment was tough on fans, coaches, & players alike. . . I just don't believe that a return to notoreity under our current coach is unlikely. Last season didn't happen overnight, & it cannot be washed from our memories overnight, either. We won't know much about this team until January or February,let's have this discussion then.

bret you are right of course as we didn't win an NCAA Championship from 1958 until 1978 and then didn't win another one until 1996. I too believe that the period from 1996-1998 was the abberation and not the norm. Who knows it may be 2020 before we win another NCAA Championship?:shrug:

[bret1555]

Well, lets hope not.:lol::lol:

[Stucat]

bret1555 wrote: Well, lets hope not.:lol::lol:
I certainly hope not but the way things are now days and the fans who jump down your neck because you don't like to lose make me thinnk it could be 2020 before we win another NCAA championship. It was twenty years between Coach Rupp's last victory in 1958 and Coach Hall's Championship in 1978 and eighteen years until Coach Pitino's Championship in 1996. Of course we had a great run from 1996 through 1998 but now with all of this talk about parity and based on our history it could be 2020 before we win another National Championship and I will be too old then to even celebrate.;)

[Wildcatcrazy11]

First of all... this is depressing

I've been a Kentucky fan for about 10 years, since I was 8, doesnt seem like much but I was a fairly knowledgable 8 year old :cool:. Anyways I really think there are people here that are worrying way too early in the game.Yes were 8 years removed from our last final four but as you can see from an earlier post, even FF are hard to come by for the "elite" programs. The fact that UK can be a top 30 program every single season, IMO, is something special. However i think part of being part of such a program is growing to expect a greatrun in the tourney every year.

Just because we arent playing as well as we are capable of there is no need to be "tubby bashing." Reminder.... We are still very early into a season that is filled with "effort" mistakes. Effort mistakes like taking care of the ball, finding a man to box, and stoping baseline in a 2-3 zone. These kinds of mistakes can happen to any team on any given night due to a lack of effort. As soon as this team gets their swagger back, i see us improving from last year by a few wins and making the S16.

[phoenix]

Interesting post this early in the season, particularly about how we have declined. Seems like not long ago we were elite 8 just missing the final four by a hair, oh wait that was year before last wasn't it? Doggone...

Before that, like centuries ago, we ran out of our #1 seeds in the NCAA tournament, yeah, what was that #1, and #1, or was that #2?? Can't remember, lets see, we go to the 2003 #1(elite 8, a bad ankle sprain made one of our key players less than effective) , 2004 a down year seedwise(:rolleyes:), yeah that was centuries ago, and then to crap out in the elite 8 the next year 2005, that sucked(:rolleyes:). Last year, shoot we barely made the NCAA tournament, but of course we did and won in the first round to get to the round of 32, still that sucked right, just the NCAA tourney again. Well, of course, which schools have the longest NCAA invite streak going on(hint, one of them sure aint Louisville)??

Not an elite program? By what standard exactly? I am sure that the standards will be set so KY doesn't qualify currently, but you better be careful because this discussion has been done before and oddly enough, many of the schools don't qualify.

[audacious1]

JohnJ wrote: Tre Pryor wrote: I think there's a phenomenon where some people overvalue a player just because they are on the fan's team.

I think there's a phenomenon where some people overvalue coaches too just because they are on a fan's team.

That's completely fair John, and I agree with you.

But I think some may be missing my intention when posting this thread.

This thread is NOT: "I don't think our team is very good any more so why cheer and let's just accept that we're not as good as we used to be."

This thread IS: "Let's be as objective as possible about our beloved Cats and not give them more credit than they truly deserve just because we love them."

I still think we should cheer for them and support them whenever possible. It's not like I am happy with last year's performance, far from it.

[Stucat]

phoenix wrote: Interesting post this early in the season, particularly about how we have declined. Seems like not long ago we were elite 8 just missing the final four by a hair, oh wait that was year before last wasn't it? Doggone...

Before that, like centuries ago, we ran out of our #1 seeds in the NCAA tournament, yeah, what was that #1, and #1, or was that #2?? Can't remember, lets see, we go to the 2003 #1(elite 8, a bad ankle sprain made one of our key players less than effective) , 2004 a down year seedwise(:rolleyes:), yeah that was centuries ago, and then to crap out in the elite 8 the next year 2005, that sucked(:rolleyes:). Last year, shoot we barely made the NCAA tournament, but of course we did and won in the first round to get to the round of 32, still that sucked right, just the NCAA tourney again. Well, of course, which schools have the longest NCAA invite streak going on(hint, one of them sure aint Louisville)??

Not an elite program? By what standard exactly? I am sure that the standards will be set so KY doesn't qualify currently, but you better be careful because this discussion has been done before and oddly enough, many of the schools don't qualify.



Remember Phoenix that Kentucky was a #2 seed in 1998 during Coach Smith's first year at Kentucky and we won it all. The way I see it is that it doesn't matter too much what your seeding is when you get into the NCAA tournament but what youdo with it after you get there.:shrug:

[Stucat]

Tre Pryor wrote: JohnJ wrote: Tre Pryor wrote: I think there's a phenomenon where some people overvalue a player just because they are on the fan's team.

I think there's a phenomenon where some people overvalue coaches too just because they are on a fan's team.

That's completely fair John, and I agree with you.

But I think some may be missing my intention when posting this thread.

This thread is NOT: "I don't think our team is very good any more so why cheer and let's just accept that we're not as good as we used to be."

This thread IS: "Let's be as objective as possible about our beloved Cats and not give them more credit than they truly deserve just because we love them."

I still think we should cheer for them and support them whenever possible. It's not like I am happy with last year's performance, far from it.

I think we should cheer for the Cats at all times not just whenever possible. It still does not make me happy when we lose. Now if that makes me a bad fan then I have always been a bad fan. Sorry but I just can't enjoy a UK game because I get into them too much. For me UK winning is source aof happiness and I can't change now because I have been this way for over forty years.

[BlueBloodCatFan]

Stucat wrote: phoenix wrote: Interesting post this early in the season, particularly about how we have declined. Seems like not long ago we were elite 8 just missing the final four by a hair, oh wait that was year before last wasn't it? Doggone...

Before that, like centuries ago, we ran out of our #1 seeds in the NCAA tournament, yeah, what was that #1, and #1, or was that #2?? Can't remember, lets see, we go to the 2003 #1(elite 8, a bad ankle sprain made one of our key players less than effective) , 2004 a down year seedwise(:rolleyes:), yeah that was centuries ago, and then to crap out in the elite 8 the next year 2005, that sucked(:rolleyes:). Last year, shoot we barely made the NCAA tournament, but of course we did and won in the first round to get to the round of 32, still that sucked right, just the NCAA tourney again. Well, of course, which schools have the longest NCAA invite streak going on(hint, one of them sure aint Louisville)??

Not an elite program? By what standard exactly? I am sure that the standards will be set so KY doesn't qualify currently, but you better be careful because this discussion has been done before and oddly enough, many of the schools don't qualify.



Remember Phoenix that Kentucky was a #2 seed in 1998 during Coach Smith's first year at Kentucky and we won it all. The way I see it is that it doesn't matter too much what your seeding is when you get into the NCAA tournament but what youdo with it after you get there.:shrug:well said :thumbup:thumbup