Help with 5th pick in my Fantasy Draft

[flacat22]

I have the 5th pick (didnt do so well last year)
These are the most likely suspects available at #5, who do you take?

[TRexSmarts]

What's your currently team? Is this a keeper league or are you starting all over?

TRexSmarts

[TRexSmarts]

Here is the best way to break it down:

1) Edgerin James - Has both Manning and Harrison. More TDs through the air than on ground. More 2 or 3 round pick.

2) Willis McGhee - Last season nobody knew about this guy. Defense will be ready for him this year. This would be one of my choice I would consider but there is better.

3) Ahman Green - still the man in GB and could carry the work load but starting to get older.

4) Clinton Portis - Joe Gibbs likes to run and pound the ball. This would be another first round pick for sure but only if my next pick is gone.

5) Duece Mcalister - New Orleans go to person right now. This would be my pick.

I would pick the following order:

Duece

Clinton

Willis

Ahman

Edgerrin

TRexSmarts

[flacat22]

TRexSmarts wrote: What's your currently team? Is this a keeper league or are you starting all over?

TRexSmarts



it had been a keeper league for the past 2 years and I wouldve kept Portis but league politics brought the keeper option to a vote and "we" lost...so now I start with a clean slate.
Good breakdown, thanks.

[TRexSmarts]

I been in a keeper league for 7 years now. Marvin Harrison has been my franchise player for all seven years. We are allowed to keep three and for the last few years I been keeping Culpepper, Randy Moss, and Harrison as my keepers. But this year I thought I would keep Willis McGhee rather than Moss but when I couldn't move Moss for a draft pick, I decided to stay with Moss. So, I have been doing research on my RB's for my draft that starts September 1st. I have the 4th round pick in this year's draft of the odd rounds and fifth round pick in even rounds. We only have 8 teams and we have a $12 entry fee. I had a somewhat off year last year. This year I'm ready to go.

TL

[WildcatRick]

McGahee....hands down!!! Not even close!!

[TRexSmarts]

most of the fantasy reports I'm seeing is saying that McGhee had a enigma of a season last year and don't think he can produce the same type of season. They compared him to Kurt Warner's first year when he had that awesome first season with the Rams only the next year he didn't because the defensive coordinators were ready for him. Overall, they have McGhee being from 3rd to 5th overall best RB.

TRexSmarts

[WildcatRick]

I have run 7 drafts so far and only one time has a player on this list been drafted before McGahee, that was Edge. There is not a player on this list that doesnt concern me health wise and Deuce is the worst of the bunch, going all the way back to college he stays hurt.

Edge will lose TD points because of Manning and the fact they will go to backups on the goal line. I like Edge, but he is still 2nd on this lsit.

Ahman Green if healthy may be the best here, but age and durability come into question. He has been carrying the load too long and it is catching up with him.

Portis has to show me a full season and some heart. Everyone looks good in Denver, give a good look in DC.

Deuce is awesome when healthy, misses too many games for me to take as my first pick(5th).

McGahee will be a workhorse in Buffalo and while Losman is learning, Willis will get a ton of carries and score lots of TD's. Its not fair to pile him in with these other RB's health wise, his only career injury was a freak accident.

Now if you could guarantee me upfront these guys would all play a full healthy season things may be different, but since there are no such guarantees its not even close here............

McGahee

[flacat22]

WildcatRick wrote: McGahee....hands down!!! Not even close!!

Yeah but with JP Losman starting for the Bills defenses will be geared to shut McGahee down until Losman proves himself to be a threat through the air.

[WildcatRick]

They tried that last year and couldnt stop him. You can only hope to contain him.

Jamal Lewis almost broke the single season rushing record being keyed on with a young QB. Withthe rushing attempts McGahee will be the highest scoring FF player of the above.

McGahee never lasts past the 5th pick anyway. Travis Henry wasnt shipped out over nothing.

[matt57]

OK, this is easy. portis only had 8 TD's (i think)last year. however, he was still in the top 4 running backs on espn's fantasy league last year. translation: even if he doesnt' rush for a ton of TD's he will still rack up crazy points for you.

[WildcatRick]

Not sure where you got that, but Portis finished 14th among RB points and is projected 11th this year.

[PhatNastyCat]

WildcatRick is dead on here fellas. I'd love to play in a league where McGahee last to #5. I have yet to see a draft where he fell past 1.4. If he does, take him.

Since McGaheewill begone, I would take McAllister. The Saints are going to use him as the focal of the offense this year and he has looked great in preseason. You cannot make draft decisions based on past injuries. Heck, McGahee is as big of an injury concern as any RB you listed. He torn 3 ligaments in his knee on the last play of his collegiate career. He already gavethe Bills andFF owners a scare this preseason with a minor leg injury. Regardless, he holds the most potential for a big year if he continues on the scoring pace of last season when he took over for Henry.

Green and Portis are not top 5 FF picks. Both are picks to target in the mid-to-bottom half of the first round. Green Bay lost two key players on the OL and that's a big deal when ranking fantasy backs. Portis put up good yardage, but I am still not a fan of the Redskins' offense.Talk about stacking the line to stop one guy. Who is afraid of the Skins' passing game?

-PNC

[jaspcat]

I think McGahee has the greatest potential for a keeper league, but I think his value is overblown as a Top 5 pick this year. I think the Bills will take a step back with JP Lohsman under center and Defenses will gear up for Willis.

By the same token, I think Defenses are going to concede the run much more against Indy this year, and Edgerrin James (as much as I hate the Colts) is going to have a huge year. Before his knee injury a couple of years ago, he was the number 1 or 2 pick in every draft. I predict something similar in 2005.

[flacat22]

well as it turns out the whiners in our league b*d and moaned until they got the keeper rule thrown out and we drew for draft positions. I pulled #4. Here's how I drafted, Id like your feedback on my team (12 team league where we start QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, FLEX, TE, K and DEF/ST)

Round 1 Priest Holmes
2 Julius Jones
3 Steven Jackson
4 Joe Horn
5 Hines Ward
6 Jerry Porter
7 Matt Hasselbeck
8 Ashley Lelie
9 Randy McMichael
10 TJ Duckett
11 Minnesota DEF
12 Justin McCareins
13 John Kasay
14 Joey Harrington
15 Chris Cooley
16 Arizona DEF

AND my bonehead http://saintsreport.com/forums/images/smilies/banghead.gifmove of the draft...

17 Jesse Chatman http://saintsreport.com/forums/images/smilies/togo.gif(thinking in terms of LT getting hurt, not realizing the Chargers had cut him, oh well, waiver wire time)

[TRexSmarts]

flacat22 wrote: well as it turns out the whiners in our league b*d and moaned until they got the keeper rule thrown out and we drew for draft positions. I pulled #4. Here's how I drafted, Id like your feedback on my team (12 team league where we start QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, FLEX, TE, K and DEF/ST)

Round 1 Priest Holmes
2 Julius Jones
3 Steven Jackson
4 Joe Horn
5 Hines Ward
6 Jerry Porter
7 Matt Hasselbeck
8 Ashley Lelie
9 Randy McMichael
10 TJ Duckett
11 Minnesota DEF
12 Justin McCareins
13 John Kasay
14 Joey Harrington
15 Chris Cooley
16 Arizona DEF

AND my bonehead http://saintsreport.com/forums/images/smilies/banghead.gifmove of the draft...

17 Jesse Chatman http://saintsreport.com/forums/images/smilies/togo.gif(thinking in terms of LT getting hurt, not realizing the Chargers had cut him, oh well, waiver wire time)





Well, you are strong in the RB postions. If Priest Holmes return to form, he will unstoppable. Julius Jones should be in for a monster year. Steven Jackson should do well for the Rams this year. I think your weakness is at QB and WR. Starting with WR, I think Jerry Porter's number is going to be alter big times now that Randy Moss is in town. As for the QB, they are a little weak in my opinion. I think you should had drafted a qb in the 2nd or 3rd round. Probably more in the 3rd round. You know your starters yet? If I have to pick, I see this team probably finishing around 4th or 5th place. You just inspired me to do thread on my fantasy football team.

TRexSmarts

[flacat22]

TRexSmarts wrote: flacat22 wrote: well as it turns out the whiners in our league b*d and moaned until they got the keeper rule thrown out and we drew for draft positions. I pulled #4. Here's how I drafted, Id like your feedback on my team (12 team league where we start QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, FLEX, TE, K and DEF/ST)

Round 1 Priest Holmes
2 Julius Jones
3 Steven Jackson
4 Joe Horn
5 Hines Ward
6 Jerry Porter
7 Matt Hasselbeck
8 Ashley Lelie
9 Randy McMichael
10 TJ Duckett
11 Minnesota DEF
12 Justin McCareins
13 John Kasay
14 Joey Harrington
15 Chris Cooley
16 Arizona DEF

AND my bonehead http://saintsreport.com/forums/images/smilies/banghead.gifmove of the draft...

17 Jesse Chatman http://saintsreport.com/forums/images/smilies/togo.gif(thinking in terms of LT getting hurt, not realizing the Chargers had cut him, oh well, waiver wire time)



I see this team probably finishing around 4th or 5th place.


WHAT????!!!! Getting Hasselbeck in the 7th round was a steal...25 TDS for him this year. Porter IMO can only benefit from the double teams and zones designed to stop Moss. Lelie is #2 for Denver and a favorite of Plummer...this squad will be battling for the championship, projected starters:

QB Hasselbeck
RB Holmes, Jones, Jackson
WR Ward, Horn
TE McMichael
K Kasay
DEF Minnesota

[TRexSmarts]

Matt Hasselback's number is still up in the air right now for this season. Seattle's Shaun Alexander is holding out until he get's a long term contract. Which means for now that Seattle doesn't have a running game which in turn means defenses can double team recievers and don't worry about the running game. Until Alexander comes back, you won't know if Hassleback is a steal or not. Right now, there is a reason he slipped to the 7th round.

TRexSmarts

[PhatNastyCat]

TRexSmarts wrote: Matt Hasselback's number is still up in the air right now for this season. Seattle's Shaun Alexander is holding out until he get's a long term contract. Which means for now that Seattle doesn't have a running game which in turn means defenses can double team recievers and don't worry about the running game. Until Alexander comes back, you won't know if Hassleback is a steal or not. Right now, there is a reason he slipped to the 7th round.

TRexSmarts



I think you are confused, becauseShaun Alexander isn't holding out. In fact, if you check the stats from last night's preseason game vs the Chiefs, he played and scored a TD. If I recall correctly, Seattle sign him to a one-year deal before training camp. Meanwhile Hass threw for 250 at 2 TD's. I am not a huge Hasselbeck fan, but he's a solid pick in the 7th round.

-PNC

[PhatNastyCat]

flacat22 wrote: well as it turns out the whiners in our league b*d and moaned until they got the keeper rule thrown out and we drew for draft positions. I pulled #4. Here's how I drafted, Id like your feedback on my team (12 team league where we start QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, FLEX, TE, K and DEF/ST)

Round 1 Priest Holmes
2 Julius Jones
3 Steven Jackson
4 Joe Horn
5 Hines Ward
6 Jerry Porter
7 Matt Hasselbeck
8 Ashley Lelie
9 Randy McMichael
10 TJ Duckett
11 Minnesota DEF
12 Justin McCareins
13 John Kasay
14 Joey Harrington
15 Chris Cooley
16 Arizona DEF

AND my bonehead http://saintsreport.com/forums/images/smilies/banghead.gifmove of the draft...

17 Jesse Chatman http://saintsreport.com/forums/images/smilies/togo.gif(thinking in terms of LT getting hurt, not realizing the Chargers had cut him, oh well, waiver wire time)



I am guessing this is a 10 team league because I can't explain how you got Julius Jones with a late 2nd round pick. I like your RB depth, especially if Jackson doesn't have to worry about looking over his shoulder to much and the former fantasy stud, Marshall Faulk. I watched the Rams in the preseason and Faulk actually flashed some of his old moves. Still if you can get a good 15-18 carries out of Jackson, plus goalline work, he makes a really nice #3 RB.Holmes and Jones could carry you a few weeks. Taking Holmes at 1.4 wasn'ta bad decision as he scored 15 TD's in the short season he played last year. If he does go down you could get by for a part of the season with Jones and Jackson. Plenty of upside there. Jones looked really solid last night and flashed the skill that made him a fantasy power stud over the end of last season.

Porter is a quality pick as he won't have to worry about double teams with Moss on the other side of the field. Keep an eye on his health. Horn is fine #1 FF WR, but I am not a huge Hines Ward fan this year. I don't like the Pitt passing game at all, but you can't discount his consistent #'s. Lelie sure looked All-Pro last night. If he and Plummer get in a rhythm he could finally reach the potential fantasy owners have been waiting for for 3 years. Maybe he need an extra year. McCareins could be better this year as he gets linked up with this previousoffensive coordinator from the Titans.

I think you took a defense too early and yes, you need to drop Chatman. See if Willie Parker is on the WW, but depending on your league size, you probably has some quality sleepers available good upside. If you want to post some here, feel free and I'll give you my take.

-PNC

[flacat22]

playing in a contract year (he just signed 1 year/6.2 mil contract to get into camp) I would expect Alexander's numbers to be huge and take pressure off of Hasselbeck and open up the passing game...IMO once you get past Manning, Culpepper and maybe McNabb the rest of the QBs are pretty much of the same value so I used my first 6 picks on RBs/WRs (I got 3 Top 10 WRs) and still feel secure in my taking Hasselbeck with my 7th...

[TRexSmarts]

I'll take it back. Looks like I was behind on some of my data. I didn't know Alexander finally signed. Then you are correct, he would be steal in the 7th round but I don't like their passing game myself either. But still stand on my prediction though. You need to strength your QB and WR position, I think. That's just my opinion. I start my draft for my keeper league tomorrow.

TRexSmarts

[Mr. Peanut]

that is an amazing draft in a 12 team league IMO. Unless you have an odd scoring system... how did Jones fall that far? Also, Horn and Ward are solid starters to pick up in rnds 4 and 5. You kicked ARSE! If Jackson Pans out, watch out. I'd trade my team for yours in a heartbeat.

I'm in a 12 team league and my 1,2,3 were E James, J Lewis, and L Jordan (I couldn't believe Jordan fell to the 3rd, since we get lots of pts for receptions and reception yds...) But, by the fourth round the top 15 WRs were gone. I ended up with Steve Smith, Chris Chambers, Eric Moulds, Charles Rogers, and Santana Moss. QB Carson Palmer. So, I think I'm VERY weak at QB, and running on hope at WR... But, I guarantee I'll be sitting pretty in our league.

As for the original question... Depending on your league scoring - I'd rank em E James/Mcgahee tied for first, Duece, with Portis and Ahman a distant 4th and 5th.