SEC tournament seeding scenarios

[Littlemeyer]

We can be anywhere from the E2 to the E5. Florida and South Carolina have the E1 and E6 wrapped up.

If we win out (with wins againstGeorgia and Florida) we can be the E2 or the E3.

To be the E2 in that scenario, Vanderbilt would have to lose their remaining games (vs. South Carolina and Arkansas), and Florida would have to beat Tennessee.

Most likely, in this scenario (us winning out), we'll be the E3.

If we beat Georgia and lose to Florida (some would say this is the most likely scenario), the E2 and E3 are out of the question. We'll be 9-7. Tennessee and Georgia play each other the last game of the season, so things get a bit complicated.

If UF beats UT, and UT beats UGA, us and UT would be 9-7. UGA would be 8-8.

In this case, UT would get the E3 based on their divisional record (they'd be 5-5, compared to our 4-6).

Now, if UF beats UT, and UGA beats UT, us and UGA would be 9-7. UT would be 8-8

In this case, UGA would get the E3 based on their divisional record. They'd be 5-5, and we'd be 4-6.

If UT is able to beat UF and UGA, we'd be the E5.

If UT is able to beat UF but loses to UGA, it's a three-way tie at 9-7. I'm having a hard time this morning finding ANY way to win a tie-break against any of these teams. So it looks like we'd be the E5 in this case as well.

If we lose both games, we'll be the E5. I'm pretty sure that this is regardless of what happens in the UT/UF game, or the UT/UGA game. (Yeah, it is. Because UT would win a tie-break scenario with us. Bummer.)

The E3 will play the second game of the Thursday night session. The E4 will play the first game of the Thursday morning session. The E5 will play the first game of the Thursday night session.

I have no clue who the opponents would be. Right now, it looks like the most likely opponent for ANY game will be Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Ole Miss, LSU, or Mississippi State.

[wade31]

more than likely (if we beat UGA and lose to UF) we will be the four seed. Which normally sucks, BUT, it would be better than the 3 seed. If we get the three seed then we would probably have to play alabama first, then florida.....GAME OVER.

If we get the likely 4 seed , then would would not have to worry about UF (if we made it) until the championship game. Now, back to reality....we probably will lose on thursday no matter who we play.:thumbdown

[ukcatfan]

You have too much time on your hands.

Where we finish will be our fault.

[Littlemeyer]

wade31 wrote: more than likely (if we beat UGA and lose to UF) we will be the four seed. Which normally sucks, BUT, it would be better than the 3 seed. If we get the three seed then we would probably have to play alabama first, then florida.....GAME OVER.

If we get the likely 4 seed , then would would not have to worry about UF (if we made it) until the championship game. Now, back to reality....we probably will lose on thursday no matter who we play.:thumbdown

If we get the 3 seed, we'd play the W6 first. (LSU?Arkansas maybe?) We'd then play the W2 (most likely one of the Mississippis, but could be any of five teams), and wouldn't have to play Florida until Saturday.

I don't see us losing on Thursday no matter what seed we get. We don't have much to hang our hats on this season, but by golly we can beat the dogsnot out of some of the Western Division teams. (By "beat the dogsnot out of...", I am of course referring to solid 6-8 point victories.)

[CATHYnKY]

Didn't we play the Thursday 7:30 game last year?

[Littlemeyer]

CATHYnKY wrote: Didn't we play the Thursday 7:30 game last year?
Best I can recall, we played the second game of the afternoon session (3:15ish) last season. (Ole Miss?)

But yeah, it was definitely a Thursday game.

[Rockober]

Littlemeyer wrote: CATHYnKY wrote: Didn't we play the Thursday 7:30 game last year?
Best I can recall, we played the second game of the afternoon session (3:15ish) last season. (Ole Miss?)

But yeah, it was definitely a Thursday game.

It was a afternoon game. Watched in Murray, KY and was a pretty close game.

[Will Lavender]

ukcatfan wrote: You have too much time on your hands.

Where we finish will be our fault.

Where is the original poster saying it isn't our fault?

[Littlemeyer]

I left out a scenario. :nada:

I said that if we win out, we'll either be the E2 or the E3. Well, I just now realized that we could also be the E4 in that case.

If Tennessee also wins out, we'd be tied with them at 10-6. (There is also a potential three-way tie with Vandy, but I'd say that's unlikely.)

Tennessee, by virtue of divisional record, would take that tie-breaker. Vandy would be the E2, UT the E3, and UK the E4.

I don't know how the three-way tie breaker would work, except that no matter what we'd be the E4. Vandy and UT would have to decide amongst themselves who'd get the 2 and 3.

For about the 16th time in the past four days....Bummer. :X

[Craig the Blueheart]

We have to play with the hand we are dealt now. Does anyone have any stats for the amount of times that 3, 4, or 5 seed has won the tournament?

[Littlemeyer]

Craig the Blueheart wrote: We have to play with the hand we are dealt now.
Yep. It's interesting. In the span of about one minute, we went from controlling our own destiny...to being the Eastern Division's whipping post.

I don't have those stats available, but since Kentucky has pretty much dominated the history of the tournament as either a 1 or 2 seed, I doubt that 3's or 4's have much historical success.

[Rockober]

Craig the Blueheart wrote: We have to play with the hand we are dealt now. Does anyone have any stats for the amount of times that 3, 4, or 5 seed has won the tournament?

This team and its fans need to take one game at a time. I know its fun but UK has lost every IF game this year it seems. So I will just look at the next oponent and go from there. My predictions are worse than the weatherman.

[cats65]

I like the 4 seed scenario. If Vandy gets the 2 seed and we can advance to the Saturday game then that could set up a redemption game in the semis. We'd have to beat the Western #5 and #1 to get there. I like our chances in Catlanta in that scenario.

[Will Lavender]

We need to beat Georgia.

I don't think we've completely locked ourselves in the Dance yet; not if we were to lose in the Thursday game of the SEC tourney. Beat Georgia and that would assure us of a winning season in the SEC. That'll get us in for sure.

[katfever]

It is pathetic that UK is playing on thursday again. UK could not beat UF in Gainesville under any circumstances.I just do not understand how anyone who is a UK fan could possibly be a Tubby Smith fan at this juncture.

[Littlemeyer]

cats65 wrote: I like the 4 seed scenario. If Vandy gets the 2 seed and we can advance to the Saturday game then that could set up a redemption game in the semis. We'd have to beat the Western #5 and #1 to get there. I like our chances in Catlanta in that scenario.
Other than the fact that we'd be playing the first game of each session, which selfishly I'd like to avoid due to the mad rush to get to the dome created by that, I agree with you.

Avoiding a potential showdown with Florida until Sunday would be a good thing.

[Will Lavender]

Littlemeyer wrote: cats65 wrote: I like the 4 seed scenario. If Vandy gets the 2 seed and we can advance to the Saturday game then that could set up a redemption game in the semis. We'd have to beat the Western #5 and #1 to get there. I like our chances in Catlanta in that scenario.
Other than the fact that we'd be playing the first game of each session, which selfishly I'd like to avoid due to the mad rush to get to the dome created by that, I agree with you.

Avoiding a potential showdown with Florida until Sunday would be a good thing.

The only good thing about that is that IF Kentucky won, we'd get to kick back and enjoy the rest of the games.

That's a rather large if, I realize.

[Littlemeyer]

Will Lavender wrote: The only good thing about that is that IF Kentucky won, we'd get to kick back and enjoy the rest of the games.

That's a rather large if, I realize.

You know, the state of mind I'm in right now, I didn't even consider that. :nada:

You're right, though. That'd be nice. And really, when you take a closer look, winning that first game as the E4 wouldn't be much of a stretch. We'd be playing the W5, which will probably be LSU, Arkansas, or Auburn. Or it might be one of the Mississippi's. Or possibly Alabama.

Here comes a cliche (you knew it was coming, right? :lol:): That divisionis truly the wild, wild West.

[CATHYnKY]

I stand corrected. Now that I think about it, I split a sandwich with CurlyCat at the pep rally for lunch then we headed on to the game. I'm thinking the 9:45 on Thursday will be a killer.

[Littlemeyer]

CATHYnKY wrote: I stand corrected. Now that I think about it, I split a sandwich with CurlyCat at the pep rally for lunch then we headed on to the game. I'm thinking the 9:45 on Thursday will be a killer.
:) I may be mistaken, but I believe I caught a cab ride with you and a few others from the hotel to the pep rally that afternoon.

[UK Chic]

Littlemeyer wrote: CATHYnKY wrote: I stand corrected. Now that I think about it, I split a sandwich with CurlyCat at the pep rally for lunch then we headed on to the game. I'm thinking the 9:45 on Thursday will be a killer.
:) I may be mistaken, but I believe I caught a cab ride with you and a few others from the hotel to the pep rally that afternoon.
Maybe it was us??? I know we met you down there. That Pep Rally was a fun time.

[Littlemeyer]

UK Chic wrote: Maybe it was us??? I know we met you down there. That Pep Rally was a fun time.
Yep, I believe you're correct. The pep rally was great. My nine-year old nephew had a blast, especially when the cheerleaders came out. (He's had a thing for the UK cheerleaders for as long as I can remember. Gets it from his father, I believe. :lol:)

Just wondering. If we play the first game of the Thursday session, will there even be a Pep Rally this year?

[uklumpy]

Littlemeyer, thanks for doing the homework, it is truly appreciated. Our party of 6 is heading down Wednesday night and I've been trying to figure out scenarios all day for Thursday and beyond. I know that I would much rather play Thursday morning than Thursday night and feel the E4 suits us best.