OK, let's analyze those recruits – of 2003 and '04

[WildcatRick]

Today is the day when everybody calculates which teams collected the most five-star prime beef in college football recruiting, adds up the stars awarded by the sign-a-phenom recruiting services, picks the winners and, sadly, taunts the losers.

And that's what we should be doing. Just make certain you analyze the correct recruiting classes -- the ones signed in 2003 and 2004.

The best time to select the winners and losers is after there have been winners and losers on the field. The recruiting classes we should be discussing today are the classes that were signed four or five years ago.
I don't know if Pennsylvania high school quarterback/diva/Vince Young wannabe Terrelle Pryor will pick Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State or Oregon. Sorry.

I cannot tell you if national champion Louisiana State, Kentucky, Florida, Michigan or Appalachian State signed the best class in America. But I do remember that Appalachian State beat Michigan, which beat Florida, which beat Kentucky, which beat LSU last season.

http://www.courier-journal.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080207/COLUMNISTS01/802070455/1002/SPORTS

[wizard]

2003 recruits
stars Pos Nat'l Rating Name School, Hometown Video HT/ WT/ 40
****WR 12 Emmanual Harrell(LaGrange HS)LaGrange, GA 5-11/185/4.37
****QB 20 Andre Woodson(North Hardin HS)Radcliff, KY 6-6/230/4.65
****WR 20 John Logan(Lexington Catholic HS)Lex, KY 5-10/170/4.28
***LB 72 Joe Schuler(Central HS)Evansville, IN 6-3/235/4.50
**TE 59 Eric Scott (Etowah HS)Woodstock, GA 6-5/252/4.60
**S 84 Roger Williams(Rockmart HS)Rockmart, GA 6-1/185/4.50
**TE 92 Dominic Lewis(E-town HS) E-town, KY 6-3/210/4.60
**S 124 Dallas Greer (Bell Co HS)Pineville, KY 6-2/188/4.50
**DT NR Delaine Means(Avondale HS)Avondale Estates,GA 6-5/290/4.80
**DT NR Ricky Abren(Hopkinsville HS)Hopkinsville, KY 6-3/260/4.80
**WR NR Keenan Burton(Dupont Manual HS)Lou, KY 6-2/180/4.45
**WR NR Leroy Wilson (Warren Central HS)B G, KY 6-4.5/190/4.40
**WR NR Jacob Tamme(Boyle Co HS)Danville, KY 6-5/210/4.55
**LB NR Jan Jorgenson(Helper Jr HS)Helper, UT 6-3/235/4.80
**TE JC Kurt Jackson (Dixie State)Saint George, UT 6-5/245/4.80
**RB JC Draak Davis (Solano)Suisun City, CA 5-7/175/4.35


2004 recruits
stars Pos Nat'l Rank Name, School, Hometown HT/ WT/ 40
****OL 16 Micah Jones (Mayfield HS)Mayfield, KY 6-4.5/317/5.10
***DE 52 Nii Adjei Oninku (Northmont HS)Clayton, OH 6-3/245/4.60
***WR 58 Lonnell Dewalt(Warren Central HS)B G, KY 6.6/215/4.50
***RB 76 Rafael Little(T L Hanna HS)Anderson, SC 5-11/195/4.45
***WR JC Scott Mitchell (Mt. San Antonio)Walnut, CA 6-3/210/4.40
***DE JC B. Jay Parsons (Saddleback)Mission Viejo, CA 6-5/265/4.60
***OL JC Ernie Pelayo (Southwestern)Chula Vista, CA 6-6/290/5.00
**QB 56 Joe Joe Brown (Crisp County HS)Cordele, GA 6-3/190/4.60
**DT NR Jason Leger (Rockcastle Co HS)Mount Vernon, KY 6-2/270/4.85
**OL 143 Kane Hannaford (Palmetto HS)Palmetto, FL 6-6/320/5.30
**DT NR Myron Pryor (Eastern HS)Middletown, KY 6-1.5/295/4.90
**CB NR Trevard Lindley(Hiram HS)Hiram, GA 6-1/180/4.40
**RB NR Tony Dixon(Parrish HS)Parrish, AL 5-10/180/4.40
**S NR Wesley Woodyard(LaGrange HS)LaGrange, GA 6-1/195/4.48
**WR NR Richard Lyons(Holy Cross)New Orleans, LA 6-0/180/4.40
**LB NR Ben McGrath(Moeller HS)Cincinnati, OH 6-3/220/4.60
**LB NR Gabe Wallace Fort Campbell, KY 6-1/233/4.60
**LB NR Johnny Williams(Fletcher HS)Neptune Beach, FL 6.3/235/4.60
**OL NR Aaron Miller(East Carter Co HS)Grayson, KY 6-6/295/5.10
**OL NR Garry Williams(Seneca HS)Louisville, KY 6-4/270/4.90
**TE JC Jamir Davis(CC of S F)San Francisco, CA 6-3/245/4.65
**DE JC Cedric Koger(Dodge City)Dodge City, KS 6-5/247/4.60
*RB NR Shomari Moore(Camden HS)Camden, NJ 5-10/175/4.40
*WR NR Aubrey White(Henry Clay HS)Lexington, KY 6-3/187
*WR NR Jarrell Williams(Princeton HS)Cincinnati, OH 6-1.5/175/4.40
*WR NR Marcus McClinton Fort Campbell, KY 6-2/201/4.50
*LB NR Ted Bullock(Valley HS)Lucasville, OH 6-4/230/4.70
*LB NR Mikhail Mabry(Mililani HS)Mililani, HI 6-2/228/4.50

2005 Class
***QB 40 Curtis Pulley(Hopkinsville HS)Hopkinsville, KY 6-2/190/4.60
***S 51 Alfonso Smith(Waggener Trad HS)Louisville, KY 6-2/195/4.55
***WR 71 Demoreo Ford(LaGrange HS)LaGrange, GA 5-11/165/4.68
**OL JC Fatu Turituri(L A Harbor)Wilmington, CA 6-4.5/310/5.12
**K NR Tim Masthay(Murray HS)Murray, KY 6-3.5/185/4.50
**TE NR Zipp Duncan(Elizabethtown HS)Elizabethtown, KY 6-5/240
**CB 79 E.J. Adams(North Gwinnett HS)Suwanee, GA 6-0/188/4.55
**TE NR Sam Maxwell(Hart County HS)Hartwell, GA 6-2/210
**DT NR Ventrell Jenkins(Columbia HS)Columbia, SC 6-3/265
**DT NR Christian Johnson(Hargrave)Chatham, VA 6-4/305
**LB NR Ben Bates(Jonathan Alder HS)Plain City, OH 6-2.5/230/4.70
**DE NR Jamaal Jackson(Crisp County HS)Cordele, GA 6-4/220
**DE NR Jeremy Jarmon(Houston HS)Germantown, TN 6-3/245
**OL NR James Alexander(Douglass HS)Atlanta, GA 6-6/250
**CB NR David Jones(Belfry HS)Belfry, KY 5-10/170
**DE NR Braxton Kelley(LaGrange HS)LaGrange, GA 6-1.5/222/4.85
**RB NR Corey Goodson(Western Magnet HS)Louisville, KY 6-2/180
**CB NR Jordan Nevels(Highlands HS)Fort Thomas, KY 5-11/170
**OL NR Ross Bogue(North Gwinnett HS)Suwanee, GA 6-5/245/4.90
**OL NR Michael Cross(Marion-Franklin HS)Columbus, OH 6-6/310
**OL NR Jorge Gonzalez(Tampa Catholic HS)Tampa, FL 6-3/290
**OL NR Zach Hennis(Jonathan Alder HS)Plain City, OH 6-8/310/5.30
**LB NR Michael Schwindel(Hancock Co HS)Lewisport, KY 6-4/200/4.60
**OL NR Sefo Mailau(East HS)Salt Lake City, UT 6-4/285
**OL NR Kenny Turner(Trigg Co HS)Cadiz, KY 6-7/270
**OL JC Kalavi Blanchard(Fresno)Fresno, CA 6-5/310

2006 Class
*****LB 2 Micah Johnson Fort Campbell, KY 6-2/252/4.80
****DE 24 Josh Minton(SW Pulaski Co HS)Somerset, KY 6-4/247
****WR JC Steve Johnson(Chabot)Hayward, CA 6-3.5/210
***TE 36 T.C. Drake(Hargrave)Chatham, VA 6-6/220
***TE 41 Chris Goode(Dunwoody HS)Dunwoody, GA 6-4/220/4.80
***S 51 Corey Goodson(Hargrave)Chatham, VA 6-1/205
***DT 54 Corey Peters(Central HS)Louisville, KY 6-3/280/5.10
***S 56 Ashton Cobb(Center Area SHS)Monaca, PA 6-0/195/4.40
***RB 98 Moncell Allen (Providence Day )Charlotte, NC 5-8/220/4.60
***RB NR Paul Warford(Madison Central HS)Richmond, KY 5-11/200
***LB NR Brandon Thurmond(Grady HS)Atlanta, GA 6-2/195/4.69
***WR NR Michael Strickland(Walton HS)Marietta, GA 6-1/190/4.60
***DE JC Jo'Dane Craigman(Mendocino)Ukiah, CA 6-4/250/4.66
**K NR Lones Seiber(Central HS)Knoxville, TN 5-10/170
**QB 60 Will Fidler (Henderson Co Senior HS)Henderson,KY 6-4/195/4.80
**S 92 Chris Drayton(Lakeside HS)Evans, GA 6-2.5/205
**QB NR Mike Hartline (GlenOak HS)Canton, OH 6-5.5/185/4.70
**WR NR Lamarckus Boswell(Greenville HS)Greenville, SC 5-10/160/4.68
**S NR Calvin Harrison(Richland Northeast HS)Columbia, SC 6-1/180/4.50
**DE NR Ricky Lumpkin(Kenwood HS)Clarksville, TN 6-3.5/250
**RB NR LaRay Foote(Mitchell Road HS)Memphis, TN 6-0.5/180/4.45
**LB NR Chris Cessna(North Laurel HS)London, KY 6-4.5/220
**DE NR Jamil Paris(Sebastian River HS)Sebastian, FL 6-7/225/4.70
**RB NR Demetrius Goode(Troup County HS)LaGrange, GA 5-9/174/4.60
**CB NR Ameer Salahudin(T L Hanna HS)Anderson, SC 5-10/180
**WR NR Terrence Jones(Douglass HS)Atlanta, GA 6-2/175/4.40
**OL NR Justin Jeffries (St. Xavier HS)Louisville, KY 6-5/280/5.20
**WR NR LaShun Watson(Greenville HS)Greenville, GA 6-5/180/4.60
**WR NR Darrell Stevens(Robinson Senior HS)Tampa, FL 6-0/175/4.50
**CB JC A.J. Grigsby(El Camino)Torrance, CA 6-0/190

4 year, 7 **** or ***** players signed and only 4 did or may be all SEC.

Who would trade ** Justin Jeffries for **** Micah Jones?
Or that *WR Marcus McClinton or ** Keenan Burton for ****John Logan?

[jwade]

Thanks for the info, Wiz.

RV has been fighting the good fight on another thread, explaining how you can't put a lot of stock in the so-called "star ratings." Anyone who doubts that he's absolutely correct should be forced to reread this list.


Jim

[Los Gatos]

Thanks for the info, Wiz.

RV has been fighting the good fight on another thread, explaining how you can't put a lot of stock in the so-called "star ratings." Anyone who doubts that he's absolutely correct should be forced to reread this list.


Jim

I've read his post. I've also read the analysis done by a Florida paper that shows that the average rating of a class is a good predictor of future success.

if you try to use to star ratings to predict which individual player will be a success, you will find a lot of "mistakes". If however you use the average rating of several classes, you get a good indication of how the team will perform in the future.

People keep pointing to cases when it did work and then conclude it not any good. Clearly the average ranking of a class is only one of many factors that determine future success. Clearly you can easily find teams that under/over performed. Still if you look a large sample of teams (as the Florida study did) you will find that the average class ranking is a good predictor of future success.

[jwade]

I've read his post. I've also read the analysis done by a Florida paper that shows that the average rating of a class is a good predictor of future success.

if you try to use to star ratings to predict which individual player will be a success, you will find a lot of "mistakes". If however you use the average rating of several classes, you get a good indication of how the team will perform in the future.

People keep pointing to cases when it did work and then conclude it not any good. Clearly the average ranking of a class is only one of many factors that determine future success. Clearly you can easily find teams that under/over performed. Still if you look a large sample of teams (as the Florida study did) you will find that the average class ranking is a good predictor of future success.

Did that study include an analysis of how frequently players' ratings changed after a commitment was made, and whether there appeared to be a disproportionate number of improved ratings for players who committed to the "top" schools? Or a disproportionate number of lowered ratings for players who committed to schools not considered traditional football powers?


Jim

[Los Gatos]

Did that study include an analysis of how frequently players' ratings changed after a commitment was made, and whether there appeared to be a disproportionate number of improved ratings for players who committed to the "top" schools? Or a disproportionate number of lowered ratings for players who committed to schools not considered traditional football powers?


Jim

As far as I know, no. This is just one of the many problems in the current ranking. A bigger one from my perspective is that they don't update the rankings to reflect who actually enrolls in the fall.

I'm not arguing that the current system doesn't have many problems or that it could not be improved. What the study does shows, however is that despite the many flaws, the average ranking is a good predictor of the team's future success.

[jwade]

As far as I know, no. This is just one of the many problems in the current ranking. A bigger one from my perspective is that they don't update the rankings to reflect who actually enrolls in the fall.

I'm not arguing that the current system doesn't have many problems or that it could not be improved. What the study does shows, however is that despite the many flaws, the average ranking is a good predictor of the team's future success.

I see what you're saying. My point is, if the system is so flawed then how can it possibly a good indicator? If I know the result I want to show the world (i.e., that the best football schools sign the highest-rated players, thereby validating the rating system) I can devise a series of subjective inputs which will, indeed, show that result. But isn't that garbage in-garbage out?


Jim

[RV]

The whole problem with recruiting rankings is the baseline for comparison. Everyone is working from the assumption that the players are ranked correctly which is the original flaw. The players are 'evaluated' by amateurs and many are not even seen. Additionally there is no way for them to realistically compare a kid playing in 6A in Georgia to a kid playing 1A in Kentucky. This is where the expertise of the coaches comes in.

Do coaches make mistakes in the evaluation of kids? Sure they do but I'll take their percentages over those of people who have no stake in the outcome other than catering to a particular fanbase that funds their enterprise.

I believe the system I use is provably better than that of either rivals or scout individually but I'm no expert either. What I do however is take their numbers, place them in a formula and weight them to the number of signees allowing that no more than 25 can count. I will make a post on this at a later date when I have more time.

[The Old School JPS]

wizard, excellent post. Thanks!

[gerntz]

"Who would trade ** Justin Jeffries for **** Micah Jones?"

Given MJ's injury, I don't think that's a valid question.

[jwade]

Jones had problems beyond his injury. The comparison of Jefferies, who played in 12 games as a true freshman to Jones, who played in 9 games as a true freshman isn't far-fetched.


Jim

[SBCatMan]

This is a tough thread to respond to in part because folks have pretty much made up their minds and to disagree somehow seems to be anti-UK. But, let me offer some thoughts anyway.

First, the disclaimers. Absolutely, the star-system has many flaws. Many, many players with relatively low star rankings do extremely well and many high star players flop. No argument there. Moreover, our staff has done an amazing job of identifying talent outside of the star system and has done an even better job of developing that talent once it gets on campus. That is what folks around here have been saying and they are 100% correct in those assertions. And, i read somewhere -- maybe even on this board -- where half of the top 10 rated classes in a particular year produced pretty unimpressive teams when they got on campus. All of this supports the contention that way too much emphasis is placed on the star system.

But, I think Los Gatos is correct. The star rating of an individual player may not be an accurate indicator of that player's ultimate success, but the average star rating of a TEAM's entire recruiting class would seem to be a reasonably accurate indicator of that TEAM's ultimate success. The odds are just heavily stacked in favor of higher rated classes.

If you are a team like UK -- one that produces 2 or 3 4-star and 5-star kids in any given class, the chances of all of those kids becoming stars are slim and the chances of some of those kids never amounting to very much are pretty good. But, if you are producing 15 or 20 4-star and 5-star kids, even if a third of them are total busts, you still are left with a whole bunch who are going to produce and help the team become successful. For every 5-star hot shot who rides the pine for 4 years there are probably 10 who become major contrinbutors. And, for every 2-star kid who turns out to be a Jacob Tamme or a Wesley Woodyard there are probably 10 who never see the field or maybe never even make it long enough to be issued a uniform.

UK has been very, very good at beating the odds. But, it is a serious form of denial to think that can go on forever. Yes, yes, yes -- the star system is badly flawed. But it is not so flawed as to be totally meaningless.

I think one of the reason we all want to argue so stringently against the star system is because based upon that system, UK has not done very well in the recruiting business. If we were pulling in a dozen 4-star and 5-star kids every year, we would think that system is pretty valid. In fact, even now, we get really, really excited when we do pull in a highly regarded recruit. No one around here was saying the star system was flawed when Micah Johnson committed. On the contrary, we expected him top start as a freshman, maybe even playing 3 different positions all at the same time! (I'm kidding there, of course, but we did view him as almost super human because he was a 5-star recruit.) So, not only are we in denial a bit, buit I think a little bit of sour grapes also comes into play.

Now, I know most will disagree with me, but please, before you jump on me, recognize this. I LOVE our recruits. I KNOW this staff has done an absolutely ASTOUNDING job of building this team. And i KNOW that our 2-star and 3-star kids have beaten several teams stocked with 5-star studs in the past two years. But, i just do not think we can keep drawing to an inside straight. At some point -- in the next couple of years -- if we are going to truly compete EVERY year with the big boys in the SEC, the recruiting rankings will have to improve.

[johnkyblue]

The average star rating of a TEAM's entire recruiting class would seem to be a reasonably accurate indicator of that TEAM's ultimate success. The odds are just heavily stacked in favor of higher rated classes.It's the chicken before the egg. A team's success brings about higher recruiting rankings.

[jwade]

SB, we're just going to have to disagree on this one.

Some of your logic escapes me, though. You say, "...half of the top 10 rated classes in a particular year produced pretty unimpressive teams..." and then in the next paragraph you say, "...the average star rating of a TEAM's entire recruiting class would seem to be a reasonably accurate indicator of that TEAM's ultimate success." Now I realize I've lifted just two phrases and I've not quoted you entirely, but I don't think I'm quoting you out of context, either. Correct me if I'm wrong. So are you saying if the star rating system is accurate half the time, then it's a reasonably good indicator of team success?

Neither you nor Los Gatos have addressed the two salient points that RV and I made against the system: (1) the rankings are made by amateurs and many players are not even seen, and (2) a player's rating is often raised or lowered after the player commits, thereby skewing the overall team rankings.

With regard to fans getting excited over signing recruits with lots of stars, that's a generalization which applies to that portion of the fan base which knows little more about recruiting than the number of stars assigned by Scout or Rivals (which is the vast majority of the fan base). Those of us who have no faith in the star rating system could care less. Micah Johnson is a good case in point. I was really excited about getting him, but not because he had a bunch of stars behind his name. I was excited because I knew the coaching staff really, really wanted him and because he looked like a player on the film I saw - limited though that was.

And since you brought up Johnson, I would point out that 5-star Johnson hasn't been able to beat out 2-star Kelley for the starting MLB job for two consecutive years. Johnson has started 3 games in 2 years, McGrath started 1 game, and Kelley the rest. Yes, Kelley is a year older and that's a factor. But that's somewhat mitigated by the fact that Kelley had major knee surgery midway through his freshman season. And yes, I know this is an example of individual players' ratings rather than a team ranking, but you brought him up first. The Johnson example doesn't support your argument that the star system has merit.

For the record I never believed that Johnson would beat out Kelley and start as a freshman (or sophomore) and I said as much at the time. I also stated, and I still believe, that his best position would be DE. Some of the staff agreed with that assessment. There was even some thought that he might grow into a DT.

I guess if those of us who rail against the star system can be accused of being in denial and having sour grapes, it's OK to accuse those who have faith in the star system of being sheep. But let's not let this conversation degenerate into name-calling.


Jim

[BigblueDrew]

UK will never get the 5 star kids UNTIL we have established a "winning tradition". We have to win and win big - for a while. Thus comes the old joke about credit. Guy asks for a loan and banker says "no you have no credit"Guy asks "How do I establish credit if nobody will loan me money". This analogy is why basically you see the same 12-14 teams in the BCS bowls EVERY YEAR. How does UK get in this club? I think we are beginning to make some inroads but it will be a slow incremental climb. To lament over our lack of star power every year is a wasted exercise. Slow butt sure is the only way we win this race.

[SBCatMan]

jwade,

As I said up front, this is tough to debate because there is SO MUCH that we DO agree upon. But, let me address the two points you brought up, starting with the second one.

The point I was trying to make in bringing up Micah Johnson really had nothing to do with Johnson as a recruit or as a player. It had nothing to do with whether or not the 5-star Johnson wold beat out the 2-star Kelly. The point I was trying to make was that in that particular instance UK fans who are so quick to dismiss the star-rating system were now willing to put a lot of credence in it because we were suddenly on the receiving end of it. If we get a 2-star guy and UGA gets a 5-star guy, we are willing to argue that stars mean little or nothing, that our guy is a diamond in the rough, that our coaches KNOW talent (which, by the way, they DO!), and that all will turn out fine in the end. But, when it is UK that gets the 5-star guy, we now see him as the second coming of Dick Butkus, Lawrence Taylor and Jim Brown all wrapped up in one, single neat package. OK, yes, perhaps that is a bit of an exageration. But, my point is still valid, I think. Many of us, particularly those of us who do not get to see these kids first hand, like the stars a lot better when they align in our favor.

My other point, which I admit I did not develop very well at 1:00 am when i wrote the original post, is this. There are 119 schools playing D1 football. Even if we discard a third of them because they are MAC schools or CUSA and such, that still leaves 80 schools who aspire to being a legit top 10 program. At the start of any given season, pundits can look over a team's roster, see what sorts of talent they have returning from the previous year, try to assess their new-comers, and project the quality of that team over the course of the season. We all know form experience that those pre-season rankings, usually based upon pretty good information, are often way, way off by the time December rolls around. Half of the top teams usually end up being relative busts.

Now, let's step back and look at it another way. Rather than trying to project a team's success in the next 3 months based upon pretty solid data, let's try to project a team's success 3 years down the road based upon a shaky, unreliable star-system applied to high school kids who have never set foot on a college campus. If half of the top 10 ranked recruiting classes actually turn out to be top 10 programs, I would say that is remarkably good. If the stars meant nothing, then the law of averages says that 1 or 2 of those top 10 classes would produce a top 10 program. To get 5 right is four times better than we should expect. (Actually, it is probably WAY better than 4 times better, but i am not enough of a mathematician or statistician to figure that out.)

To those who say that succes on the field breeds success in recruiting and vice-versa, and that we will start to see 4-star and 5-star kids as we continue to win and go to bowls, I say "Yes," you are correct. I have no arguement there at all. But even those comments support the contention that the stars DO matter because implicit in that observation is that we DO WANT 4-star and 5-star kids. And, if we WANT them, then there must at least be SOME validity in the ranking system.

So, let me return to my very first line. There is MUCH that we agree on. I just think that it is, to a large degree, sour grapes that makes us so quick to dismiss the star-ranking system in its entirety. And, furthermore, OVER TIME, if we are to coninue to rise in the SEC, we are going to have to start getting a larger share of these kids than we are getting today.

Peace to all, and GO CATS!

[RV]

This is a tough thread to respond to in part because folks have pretty much made up their minds and to disagree somehow seems to be anti-UK.


I can't accept that premise at all.

First, the disclaimers. Absolutely, the star-system has many flaws. Many, many players with relatively low star rankings do extremely well and many high star players flop. No argument there. Moreover, our staff has done an amazing job of identifying talent outside of the star system and has done an even better job of developing that talent once it gets on campus. That is what folks around here have been saying and they are 100% correct in those assertions. And, i read somewhere -- maybe even on this board -- where half of the top 10 rated classes in a particular year produced pretty unimpressive teams when they got on campus. All of this supports the contention that way too much emphasis is placed on the star system.

But, I think Los Gatos is correct. The star rating of an individual player may not be an accurate indicator of that player's ultimate success, but the average star rating of a TEAM's entire recruiting class would seem to be a reasonably accurate indicator of that TEAM's ultimate success. The odds are just heavily stacked in favor of higher rated classes.


Here's my position. While I think that individual ratings of players is flawed those ratings overall do have some merit and shouldn't be summarily dismissed. Likewise the team rankings are flawed because of the imperfection of the individual ratings and due to the fact that they count all the players signed over the 25 man limit. I have stated previously how I think the individual ratings are wrong but let me address the team rankings as well.

No team can bring in more than 25 players per year but the rankings credit teams with more than 25 signees. That skews the rankings. Also there are almost no teams that bring in a class less than 15 players so I think this should be kind of a baseline and then the values graduated from 15 to 25 to allow for depth signings. All players signed won't be starters but many signed will be valuable depth and I don't think people realize how imperative it is to have a full squad not only to overcome injury but to have adequate numbers and abilities to practice against. All players over the 25 limit should be discounted in the ranking of teams.

My theory that the following classes should be rated relatively the same due to the factors I stated above.

10 five star players or,
15 four star players or,
20 three star players or,
25 two star players

Which class would you rather have?

My view:
The class of five star players would be immensely talented but would lack depth.
The class of four star players would be a little less talented individually but would give more depth.
The class of three star players would be my choice as the talent level is there (top 750 players in the nation supposedly) and there is sufficient depth. Remember you should be working on a five year plan meaning you have five years to fill 85 scholarships because it's most beneficial to a team to redshirt players.
And then finally the class of two star players who are supposedly the least talented but gives you the greatest depth.

I agree with Los Gatos that the average star rating of a TEAM's entire recruiting class would seem to be a reasonably accurate indicator of that TEAM's ultimate success but by services not weighting those players from a minimum class size to a maximum class size and discounting all those over the maximum it again skews those rankings. That's why it's so difficult to make comparisons between teams.

I have taken the numbers provided by the scouting services and inserted them in the parameters I suggested and it shows even more clearly the relative strength of particular teams. Using this system, UK's recruiting classes have been ranked quite a bit higher than they have been by the services and the results on the field have born that out.

[wizard]

3 out of the 7 **** recruits have been busts, and 23 out of 56 ** have been busts, but in my book, 16 of the ** have exceeded expectations, were as only one of the **** has live up to their rating so far.

If you were giving star rating to the team today, Andre Woodson, Keenan Burton, Jacob Tamme, Wesley Woodyard, and Braxton Kelley would be ****, and Eric Scott, Dominic Lewis, Nii Adjei Oninku, Rafael Little, Jason Leger, Myron Pryor, Trevard Lindley, Tony Dixon, Richard Lyons, Micah Johnson, Josh Minton, Steve Johnson, Garry Williams, Jeremy Jarmon, Corey Peters, Ashton Cobb, Paul Warford, and Justin Jeffries would be ***, so far. The book has not been closed on some of them yet. I would say a ***** is someone going in the first round, and **** is a first day pick, and *** is a 5-7 rounder or free agent that makes the pro team. Let's face it, if you make all-conference in the SEC, you are not a "possible pro", you are a first day pick.

here is the rating for coming out of highschool, prep, or JC:

* 5 star (Freaks of the land, kind of like the football equivalent of McDonald's All-American - Only about 25 kids out of 3000; less than 1% of all D-I signees)

* 4 star (Elite prospects believed to have strong pro potential; approx. Top 250, only 8% of all D-I signees)

* 3 star (Believed to be all-conference type players with possible pro potential; approx Top 600, 20% of all D-I signees)

* 2 star (Believed to be solid major conference players; the baseline rating. Most of the 3,000 D-I signees will fall in this category.)

* 1 star (Possible D-I player; borderline)

[wizard]

here are the 07, and 08 classes

Pos Nat'l Rank Nat'lRating Name School, Hometown Video HT/ WT/ 40
***OT 34 Stuart Hines (Bowling Green HS)Bowling Green, KY 6-5/275/5.25
***OG 39 Brad Durham (Rockcastle Co HS)Mount Vernon, KY 6-5/300
***DT 60 Shane McCord(Hart County HS)Hartwell, GA 6-1/275/5.33
***RB 69 Brandon Jackson(Marist HS)Eugene, OR 5-10/195/4.50
***OT 76 Billy Joe Murphy(Monroe Co HS)Tompkinsville, KY 6-7/265
***S 86 Chris Drayton(Hargrave Military Academy)Chatham, VA 6-0/200
***RB 93 Moncell Allen(Fork Union )Fork Union, VA 5-8/220
***OT JC Jess Beets(Saddleback)Mission Viejo, CA 6-3/305
**K NR Ryan Tydlacka(Trinity HS)Louisville, KY 6-2/200
**SLB 89 Jacob Dufrene(John Curtis Christian)River Ridge, LA 6-1/210/4.70
**QB 90 Matt Lentz(Greenville HS)Greenville, SC 6-3/205/4.55
**MLB NR Ronnie Sneed(Fla Sta Univ School)Tallahassee, FL 6-1.5/225/4.56
**CB NR Duran Jefferson(Holmes HS)Covington, KY 6-1.5/170/4.40
**DE NR Antwane Glenn(Broome HS)Spartanburg, SC 6-4/250
**S NR Mychal Bailey(LaGrange HS)LaGrange, GA 6-1/181/4.57
**CB NR Randall Burden(LaGrange HS)LaGrange, GA 6-2/170
**OT NR Jake Lanefski(McGill-Toolen HS)Mobile, AL 6-5/265
**DE NR Greg Meisner(Hempfield Area SHS)Greensburg, PA 6-2/225
**S NR Antonio Thomas(Broome HS)Spartanburg, SC 6-2/190/4.50
**CB NR Taiedo Smith(Dunnellon HS)Dunnellon, FL 6-0/175/4.40
**OT NR Phillip Hibbard(South Laurel HS)London, KY 6-7/275/5.10
**S NR Greg Wilson(North Clayton HS)College Park, GA 6-2.5/180/4.55
**WR NR Kyrus Lanxter(Alcoa HS)Alcoa, TN 6-2/185
**WR NR Anthony Mosley(Tucker HS)Tucker, GA 5-11/170/4.36
**OG JC Josh Winchell(Northwest Mississippi)Senatobia, MS 6-5/325
*DE NR Charles Mustafaa(Westlake HS)Atlanta, GA 6-3.5/231

2008
Pos Nat'lRank Nat'lRating NameSchool, Hometown Video HT/ WT/ 40
****S 12 Winston Guy(Lexington Catholic HS)Lexington, KY 6-0/185/4.35
****WR 26 Aaron Boyd(Henry Clay HS)Lexington, KY 6-4.5/192/4.50
***OG 29 Chandler Burden(La Salle HS )Cincinnati, OH 6-5/290/5.06
***TE 32 Sean Stackhouse(Mandarin HS)Jacksonville, FL 6-3/250/4.90
***S 45 E.J. Fields(Frankfort HS)Frankfort, KY 6-2/180/4.40
***OT 46 Dave Ulinski(Dupont Manual HS)Louisville, KY 6-6/290/5.20
***OG 48 Trevino Woods(Clarke Central HS)Athens, GA 6-5/282/5.42
***DT 63 Donte Rumph(Calhoun County HS)Saint Matthews, SC 6-3/250
***WR 141 Matt Roark(North Cobb HS)Kennesaw, GA 6-6/190
**SLB 47 Taylor Wyndham(Swansea HS)Swansea, SC 6-4/210
**WLB 52 William Johnson(Pearl-Cohn HS)Nashville, TN 6-3/195
**OG 65 Matthew Smith(St. Xavier HS)Louisville, KY 6-4/265
**QB 94 Deaunte Mason(Pearl-Cohn HS)Nashville, TN 6-4/218/4.70
**CB 99 Randall Cobb(Alcoa HS)Alcoa, TN 5-11/175
**CB 107 Cartier Rice(James F Byrnes HS)Duncan, SC 5-11/172/4.50
**WLB NR Danny Trevathan(Leesburg HS)Leesburg, FL 6-2/210/4.45
**OG 125 Osaze Idumwonyi(Cedar Hill HS)Cedar Hill, TX 6-1/273/5.18
**WR 172 Eugene McCaskillChester, SC 5-11.5/160/4.69
**DE NR Collins Ukwu(Lavergne HS)La Vergne, TN 6-5/222
**WR 297 Eric Adeyemi(Miami Southridge HS)Miami, FL 6-0/165/4.60

[sardiscat]

"While I think that individual ratings of players is flawed those ratings overall do have some merit and shouldn't be summarily dismissed."

The players rated 4 and 5 stars are rarely not that good. Most fans can tell a freak athlete when they see one. About the only misses you see among the real highly rated players are those who don't qualify and those who get injured and never play. Where the star rankings really don't mean a thing is among the players who are ranked lower. Many, many one or two star players are every bit as good--or will be every bit as good by the time they have been in school for three years--as those given four stars. All you have to do to know that is scan an NFL roster and see how many players came from schools that are smaller or otherwise don't have their pick from the litter. Way too often, lower ranked players are lower ranked just because nobody in the ratings business has seen them play or knew what they were seeing when they did see them play.