Recruiting Stats

[KennesawCat]

After contemplating over many posts concerning recruiting, whiffs, hit-rates, "Tubby couldn't recruit", "Duke gets everyone they go after", "BGC has missed on more than he's gotten", etc., I though I would compile for you some recruiting stats.

I've taken 10 (Edit: 11 to add Ohio State) selected programs and looked at the hit rates for next year, this year, and going back 2 years. The status include the number of 4 and 5 star recruits who verbally accepted offers from each school. Stats are from scout.com (that creates a margin of error in itself, but that's for another thread). Some of the players may not have qualified, or may have gone pro, or just turned out to be busts. These stats do not take any of that into account. It simply who verbally accepted offers.

Team Hit Total %
2008
MSU 3 out of 4 75% 0 remaining
Duke 2 out of 4 50% 1 remaining
UNC 3 out of 9 33% 0 remaining
Ohio State 4 out of 12 33% 0 remaining
Kansas 4 out of 15 27% 2 remaining
Florida 4 out of 15 27% 0 remaining
Louisville 3 out of 17 18% 1 remaining
Memphis 2 out of 13 15% 2 remaining
Kentucky 2 out of 17 12% 1 remaining
Texas 1 out of 16 6% 3 remaining
Indiana 0 out of 12 0% 2 remaining

2007
MSU 3 out of 6 50%
Florida 4 out of 10 40%
Ohio State 4 out of 10 40%
Duke 3 out of 8 38%
Memphis 4 out of 11 36%
Texas 2 out of 9 22%
Indiana 4 out of 20 20%
Kentucky 2 out of 13 15%
Kansas 2 out of 15 13%
Louisville 1 out of 9 11%
UNC 0 out of 5 0%

2006
Duke 4 out of 5 80%
Texas 7 out of 13 54%
Louisville 4 out of 8 50%
UNC 6 out of 14 43%
Ohio State 5 out of 12 42%
MSU 3 out of 10 30%
Kansas 3 out of 10 30%
Kentucky 3 out of 13 23%
Memphis 2 out of 9 22%
Indiana 2 out of 10 20%
Florida 3 out of 16 19%

2005
Memphis 4 out of 6 67%
Duke 5 out of 8 63%
Louisville 3 out of 7 43%
Kentucky 2 out of 7 29%
UNC 4 out of 15 27%
Kansas 4 out of 15 27%
Ohio State 1 out of 5 20%
Florida 2 out of 14 14%
MSU 1 out of 8 13%
Texas 1 out of 9 11%
Indiana 0 out of 3 0%

[chworld22]

After contemplating over many posts concerning recruiting, whiffs, hit-rates, "Tubby couldn't recruit", "Duke gets everyone they go after", "BGC has missed on more than he's gotten", etc., I though I would compile for you some recruiting stats.

I've taken 10 selected programs and looked at the hit rates for next year, this year, and going back 2 years. The status include the number of 4 and 5 star recruits who verbally accepted offers from each school. Stats are from scout.com (that creates a margin of error in itself, but that's for another thread). Some of the players may not have qualified, or may have gone pro, or just turned out to be busts. These stats do not take any of that into account. It simply who verbally accepted offers.

Team Hit Total %
2008
MSU 3 out of 4 75% 0 remaining
Duke 2 out of 4 50% 1 remaining
UNC 3 out of 9 33% 0 remaining
Kansas 4 out of 15 27% 2 remaining
Florida 4 out of 15 27% 0 remaining
Louisville 3 out of 17 18% 1 remaining
Memphis 2 out of 13 15% 2 remaining
Kentucky 2 out of 17 12% 1 remaining
Texas 1 out of 16 6% 3 remaining
Indiana 0 out of 12 0% 2 remaining

2007
MSU 3 out of 6 50%
Florida 4 out of 10 40%
Duke 3 out of 8 38%
Memphis 4 out of 11 36%
Texas 2 out of 9 22%
Indiana 4 out of 20 20%
Kentucky 2 out of 13 15%
Kansas 2 out of 15 13%
Louisville 1 out of 9 11%
UNC 0 out of 5 0%

2006
Duke 4 out of 5 80%
Texas 7 out of 13 54%
Louisville 4 out of 8 50%
UNC 6 out of 14 43%
MSU 3 out of 10 30%
Kansas 3 out of 10 30%
Kentucky 3 out of 13 23%
Memphis 2 out of 9 22%
Indiana 2 out of 10 20%
Florida 3 out of 16 19%

2005
Memphis 4 out of 6 67%
Duke 5 out of 8 63%
Louisville 3 out of 7 43%
Kentucky 2 out of 7 29%
UNC 4 out of 15 27%
Kansas 4 out of 15 27%
Florida 2 out of 14 14%
MSU 1 out of 8 13%
Texas 1 out of 9 11%
Indiana 0 out of 3 0%

I think that these number could be some what decieving in that fact that it looks like CBG is trying to cast his net a little farther than Tubby to hope to pull in a couple more of those guys. You can see where Tubby decided that he better do something similar and quick or he is going to be in big trouble with recruiting. He offered more than twice the scholarships from 05 to 06 that is amazing.

I guess we will see which method works better I would say the broad net will work better because then you show a lot of kids love you might get 2 or 3 maybe 4 if you focus on 5 or 6 kids they might not go with you then you are left blowing in the wind scrambling for some players to fill spots. Much like Billy is doing this year towards the end for a big guy.

If you wait a year or two more I think you will find the numbers will be changing to a better percentage. Billy has had one full year to show kids what he can do here and with a depleted roster he has done pretty good. If he can come back next year and bring this team along like it finished last year then he will start to get noticed even more by recruits trying to make it to the next level.

Also, like you said you only used one recruitng service and the stars system can be a little different from service to service. So, that could effect the numbers as well.

[KennesawCat]

I think that these number could be some what decieving in that fact that it looks like CBG is trying to cast his net a little farther than Tubby to hope to pull in a couple more of those guys. You can see where Tubby decided that he better do something similar and quick or he is going to be in big trouble with recruiting. He offered more than twice the scholarships from 05 to 06 that is amazing.

I guess we will see which method works better I would say the broad net will work better because then you show a lot of kids love you might get 2 or 3 maybe 4 if you focus on 5 or 6 kids they might not go with you then you are left blowing in the wind scrambling for some players to fill spots. Much like Billy is doing this year towards the end for a big guy.

If you wait a year or two more I think you will find the numbers will be changing to a better percentage. Billy has had one full year to show kids what he can do here and with a depleted roster he has done pretty good. If he can come back next year and bring this team along like it finished last year then he will start to get noticed even more by recruits trying to make it to the next level.

Also, like you said you only used one recruitng service and the stars system can be a little different from service to service. So, that could effect the numbers as well.

I agree with everything you said, except the first 10 words. The stats actually SUPPORT your arguments. BCG is casting a wide net. His hit rate is low his first year but may get better in the future.

But there are some eye-poppers here:
1. Coach Kryz.... DOES get most of the guys he goes after, but he goes after very few.
2. Indiana has stunk it up.
3. Matta at Ohio State got a lot of top players the last three years.
4. Look at the difference in styles (wide net vs. a more concentrated approach). Generally, the wider the net the lower the hit rate (This one is interesting to me. Do some guys have to cast wider nets to get 3 or 4 signed? Are they sending out offers like candy? Would they get the 3 or 4 if they didn't offer so many? Why is Kryz... so successful when he doesn't offer many?)
5. UK hasn't really done well the during this 4 year stretch.
6. Even UNC had a down year, but they already had a stocked team that year which probably scared off some recruits.

[chworld22]

I agree with everything you said, except the first 10 words. The stats actually SUPPORT your arguments. BCG is casting a wide net. His hit rate is low his first year but may get better in the future.

But there are some eye-poppers here:
1. Coach Kryz.... DOES get most of the guys he goes after, but he goes after very few.
2. Indiana has stunk it up.
3. Matta at Ohio State got a lot of top players the last three years.
4. Look at the difference in styles (wide net vs. a more concentrated approach). Generally, the wider the net the lower the hit rate (This one is interesting to me. Do some guys have to cast wider nets to get 3 or 4 signed? Are they sending out offers like candy? Would they get the 3 or 4 if they didn't offer so many? Why is Kryz... so successful when he doesn't offer many?)
5. UK hasn't really done well the during this 4 year stretch.
6. Even UNC had a down year, but they already had a stocked team that year which probably scared off some recruits.

I was talking more about the percentage of landed to recruits. But I think we are on the same page regardless.