The Reds

[MSU Cat]

I've been to see the Reds twice this season. I've watched them numerous times on TV. This has probably been discussed before. However, this has to be the worst bullpen in the Major League. How long is it going to be before Krivsky and Co. go out and make a trade or sign a young reliever who can throw the ball over 93 mph? Chris Hammond, Dave Weathers, and Esteban Yan are all over the hill retreads who can't hold a lead to save their lives. If the Reds don't shore up the bullpen there is no way they can contend for a playoff spot. If they can cure their problems I think they can be in the picture for the wildcard spot all year long.

[Cincy110]

You are correct - but who are you going to trade? You could trade Larue - but who wants a $2 million dollar a year catcher that hits .175?? No team is going to want any of the guys they have in the pen now. You can't trade away your young pitching in the minors forreleif guys. Relief guys have to come free agency in the off season. They have built this team for about 2 years from now. The IF is young, with the only exception at first with Hatteberg - but I wouldn't be surprised to see Dunn there in a few years when they can bring up someone that can play center. Then, they can move griffey to LF. Harang, Arroyo, Ramirez, are all good young pitchers and they have drafted pitching the last few years. Unfortunately, with their payroll they are limited.

[cumberlandredskin]

The bullpen is the most glaring weakness for sure. But they have other problems too. The defense isn't very good. They have committed the most errors in the NL. Also their hitting is very inconsistent. It seems to be all or nothing. Meaning it's a three run homer or they don't score. Last night the Mets TV showed an interesting stat that showed the Reds have scored 45% of their runs off of Home Runs. That can be good and bad. Personally I wouldn't mind if they traded some their home runhitters for doubles hitters. That type of hitter is usually more consistent and has better RBI production.Pitching is the name of the game and I would not be surprised if Krivsky pulls a blockbuster trade this winter involving some of these sluggers to get pitching. IMO I don't think anything major will happen during the season but you never know.

[EricBigNally]

Supposedly, if they feel they can make a run later on down the road in this season, more money is going to be spent. There never was an indication that I am aware of as to where the money was going to go, but you have to assume it would go towards some form of attempt at the bullpen. I don't have any articles to quote, but it was said during a telecaston WGN when they were playing the cubs last week I believe it was.

[Cincy110]

The Reds aren't going to spend that type of money on a player for a half a year

[Trueblujr]

Rome wasn't built in a day, and nobody even expected the Reds to be in the position they are today. no one can gripe about most of the moves Krivsky has made to date. Arroyo and Phillips are gems. I'm sure the Red's will do whatever they are capable of doing to make themselves competitive if they are still in this position a month from now. However, just making the playoffs would be a bonus and they could spend the off season further correcting the problems that still plague them. The new ownership is showing the commitment to winning sooner rather than later, but I'm sure even they would admit they cant fix the Red's overnight.

[jaspcat]

Agree with most everyone's comments, especially that Arroyo and Phillips were stellar moves and that our pen is abysmal.

I caught the tale-end of some comments Chris Welch was making on last night's telecast about a trade rumor with the Indians: Kearns for Jake Westbrook. As much as I like Austin and root for him as a Kentucky boy, he is great trade bait for a pitcher and I'd like this to happen. Kearns has been very streaky, but strikes out a lot and has pretty average numbers for a corner outfielder in the middle of a pretty potent lineup. With Chris Denorfia hitting .340 in Louisville, I wonder how long it'll take till he gets a look in the majors.

As far as relief help, a young, live arm will be next to impossible to trade for but I'm sure the Reds will try to add a vet for a playoff run (maybe R. Hernandez or D. Marte could be available from Pittsburg).

The Cards and Astros look vulnerable, and all those teams in the West have flaws. I see the Reds, despite the pitching weaknesses they have, can contend for the division, if not the wildcard.

[sojourner]

FCFS82 wrote: Cincy110 wrote: The Reds aren't going to spend that type of money on a player for a half a year
Yeah, but how many shots do the Reds get? This could be their chance and they can't think economics right now. I mean, be smart with the money, but they are going to have to reach out in some way.



I disagree. I live out near San Francisco and they have been following that argument for the past 5-6 years. They have been trading away their future for half-year players all of that time. Now they are old and have no future. Several years ago the Giants traded away to get Ponson from the Orioles. He proceeded to stink up the place. The end result was that the Giants did not win with Ponson, he left the team to go elsewhere at the end of the year, and the Giants were out prospects. Not quite a winning formula

That is what can easily happen. If other teams know you are trying to trade, they will get the better end of the deal.

[Athens2005]

FCFS82 wrote: Think John Smoltz could be persuaded to the bullpen again?

:question


1) It is highly unlikely that the Braves trade Smoltz - this season!
He has a 1-year club option on his contract for next season at $8 million.

If the Braves traded Smoltz this year, they'd be kicking themselves trying to replace him in the off-season.
$8 million is cheap for a guy who brings everything he does to the table - and has been with the organization for 19 years.

2) It is also doubtful that Smoltz would return to the bullpen mid-season.
A huge part of his rationale in returning to the rotation was that he felt it was better for his arm to pitch on a regular schedule.
I don't see him making a switch back to the bullpen mid-season, especially if he thinks it's worse on his arm.
Also, Smoltz got frustrated with being such a dominant closer, and then failing to reach the mound in the play-offs as the Braves consistently were trailing in the late innings.
If he goes anywhere, I'm sure he'll want to start, as I don't see him wanting to burn his final days, sitting in someone else's bullpen, waiting to figure out if he's going to have a chance to pitch or not.

3) Smoltz has to approve any trade, and I don't see him approving one to a National League team.
Detroit would be the most likely destination, since he is a Michigan native and a lot of his family is still in the area.
Detroit is also the organization that drafted him originally (traded for Doyle Alexander in August, 1987).
The Yankees & Red Sox are also frequently mentioned as potential destinations, but that is largely due to the fact that those teams have high payrolls, and people just have a tendency to throw their names in - especially since the Yankees have pitching problems.
But the Yankees, as we have seen in season's past, have really run out of good, tradeable assets, and that is part of the reason that they are having trouble building a good rotation.

So, when you go back to the fact that Smoltz has a club option on his contract for next season ($8 million), it is doubtful that the Yankees would have enough to trade that would make it worth the Braves while to trade him this season.


If the Braves are wallowing around next year, like they are now, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Braves consider trading him - for his benefit and theirs.
But right now, they're still looking at being able to field a formidable team in 2007, and Smoltz is a huge part of their plans.


Personally, I would really enjoy watching Smoltz pitch in the post-season for Detroit.
It's been so much fun watching him in the play-offs the last 15 years, it won't quite seem like October without him.
(I won't miss watching the Brave lose, though. ;))

But, I think everyone is still at least 1 year away from considering that.

I think that John still hopes to end his career in Atlanta - and hopes that he'll see at least one more October at Turner Field.

[Will Lavender]

This is anecdotal, and I know the Moneyballers scoff at anecdotes, but it seems to me that bullpen success for the most part is...well, luck.

Look at Houston. Last year, their bullpen was lockdown solid. As good of a bullpen as the National League has seen in quite some time.

This year, it's not. Same guys. Different results.

Look at guys like the Dodgers old closer, Eric Gagne. As a starter, he was average. As a closer, he was, for a couple of years, the best the game has ever seen.

Look at how these teams like Boston and Oakland just trade their closers after the season. Billy Beane even has a name for it: "Shopping the closer." Pump the guy up, make him out to be all-world, and then get something in return for him and bring in another guy.

Sometimes these guys have great seasons, but it seems that they often follow those great seasons with duds.

There are exceptions to the rule, of course. Mariano Riverra. Jason Isringhausen. Etc. But it seems to me that a lot of these guys are taken off the slag heap, and sometimes they rise to the occasion. Sometimes they don't.

My point in this re: the Reds is that I don't think you throw away important guys -- guys like Dunn or Kearns -- for bullpen help because it isso risky. I think you just bring up the guys you got (Chris Welch says the Reds don't have anyone, but I don't know if that's true), maybe take a couple of guys off the free agent heap, and see what you get.

The bullpen is essential.No doubt. But building a good one isn't really an inexact science. Nor does having a good one bring instant success. To wit: for three or four years in the early 2000s, the Reds had the best pen in baseball, but they were an average team.

:shrug:

[cumberlandredskin]

I agree with Will. You don't trade an everday regular for a bullpen pitcher. Nor do spend a lot money on the bullpen except for a closer. Mainly because a relief pitcher usually has short shelf life. Most only have a couple of really good seasons.I think the Reds have a good closer now in Todd Coffey. I've read they may have some potential bullpen help is in AA Chattanooga. They may be waiting till after the All Star break to bring one them in or they may be looking to tradeone of their catchers for some help. LaRue would probably bring the most in a trade even though he is having a terrible year.

With a bad bullpen and inconsistent defense and hitting the Reds are only two games out of first place and lead the wild card by a game and half. Very favaorable schedule between now and the All Star break. Thirteen games against sub .500 teams starting with the worst, Kansas City Royals. Of course the last time the Reds schedule favored them they immediately lost 5 of 7 games to the Cubs and Brewers.

[Cincy110]

The reds don't have the same options that Houston and St. Louis have. Plain and simple. They have to try and find diamonds in the rough. Who are the reds going to trade?? They aren't going to trade prospects for bullpen help. Every team in the Major Leagues is looking for bullpen help. But you can't risk your future for it.

[Will Lavender]

FCFS82 wrote: The Reds cannot win with the bullpen they have now, they will need to get someone, somehow. Drayton McLane at Houston will spend the money, even above Roger if he has to, St. Louis has money to burn, where is Cincinnati in all that? Third place in the division = no playoffs.



I'll tell you where:

Here: http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/33/Rank_1.html

As Cincy just said, the Reds simply don't have the luxury of many other teams in baseball. They have to do their business differently. One thing Wayne Krivsky (who's done a tremendous job) has to ask right now is, Is this the team?

I don't think it is. This team is the third or fourth best team in the National League Central, IMO. You don't trade away anything valuable just to boost the bullpen of a middling team.

Krivsky should wait, see what happens, maybe takea piece or two off the waiver pile, and hold his hand until next year. Next year, with Arroyo in his second year, with Harang back, with Homer Bailey perhaps ready...next year might be a magical one for the Reds.

But it's not going to happen this September.

[Will Lavender]

FCFS82 wrote: Will Lavender wrote: FCFS82 wrote: The Reds cannot win with the bullpen they have now, they will need to get someone, somehow. Drayton McLane at Houston will spend the money, even above Roger if he has to, St. Louis has money to burn, where is Cincinnati in all that? Third place in the division = no playoffs.



As Cincy just said, the Reds simply don't have the luxury of many other teams in baseball. They have to do their business differently. One thing Wayne Krivsky (who's done a tremendous job) has to ask right now is, Is this the team?

I don't think it is. This team is the third or fourth best team in the National League Central, IMO. You don't trade away anything valuable just to boost the bullpen of a middling team.

But it's not going to happen this September.

Your currently the wildcard leader and only one game back of the NL Central lead against a reeling St. Louis squad.

How good does it have to look?



The Reds were in the same situation two years ago, and it all fell apart in the second half.

I think this team is better than that team, but not by much.

I believe the Reds will be in it until late August, but I just think St. Louis and Milwaukee are going to make surges in the second half that the Reds aren't going to be able to keep up with. Just a hunch. Hope I'm wrong, though.

[Doug Hardin]

I'm an Orioles fan, so just from last year's experience, I know not to get too excited in June. My O's were something like 42-28 at one point, then finished about 78-84. I've heard a lot of people call this Reds team "This year's version of last year's Orioles." At least to this point, they've hung around a little longer than last year's Orioles did, whose skid started in mid-June--about the time I went to all three games in Cincinnati.

The "trade prospects for veterans" debate is always tricky. You never want to be on a Baseball Tonight "worst deadline deals" list with "Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson" and "John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander." But I think if you're the Reds this season, and you're still contending a month from now, you've got to trade some prospects to make a run.

Baseball prospects are like college basketball recruits, only even more inexact. It's always fun to go back and look at the McDonald's All-American list or the Baseball America top prospects from 10 years ago and see which were total busts and which actually panned out. Fans hype them up and believe without a doubt that a prospect/recruit is going to be a superstar, but there are just as many Marvin Stones, Todd Van Poppels, and Alex Ochoas as there are Tayshaun Princes, Ken Griffey Jrs, and David Wrights. That's why if I were a GM, I'd trade a prospect for a good veteran player most of the time.

[sojourner]

Doug Hardin wrote: I'm an Orioles fan, so just from last year's experience, I know not to get too excited in June. My O's were something like 42-28 at one point, then finished about 78-84. I've heard a lot of people call this Reds team "This year's version of last year's Orioles." At least to this point, they've hung around a little longer than last year's Orioles did, whose skid started in mid-June--about the time I went to all three games in Cincinnati.

The "trade prospects for veterans" debate is always tricky. You never want to be on a Baseball Tonight "worst deadline deals" list with "Jeff Bagwell for Larry Anderson" and "John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander." But I think if you're the Reds this season, and you're still contending a month from now, you've got to trade some prospects to make a run.

Baseball prospects are like college basketball recruits, only even more inexact. It's always fun to go back and look at the McDonald's All-American list or the Baseball America top prospects from 10 years ago and see which were total busts and which actually panned out. Fans hype them up and believe without a doubt that a prospect/recruit is going to be a superstar, but there are just as many Marvin Stones, Todd Van Poppels, and Alex Ochoas as there are Tayshaun Princes, Ken Griffey Jrs, and David Wrights. That's why if I were a GM, I'd trade a prospect for a good veteran player most of the time.

I agree that prospects will frequently not pan out. But what happens is not that you are trading a propsect, or two, for an established veteran. Instead you often are trading a prospect, or two, for one-half of one year of a veteran's career. All to often, the veterans acquried at this time are playing out their option with their current team. That is why they are available. Like Ponson. I think that is a sucker move.

[BOURBON TOWN CAT FAN]

Houston made a move today to bolster their offense and make a run in the central division.

Huff bound for Houston
Astros acquire slugger to bolster offense
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060712&content_id=1554133&vkey=n ews_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

The Astros acquired outfielder Aubrey Huff and cash from the Devil Rays on Wednesday in exchange for right-hander Mitch Talbot and infielder Ben Zobrist, two Minor League prospects.
In addition, the Astros optioned outfielder Jason Lane to Triple-A Round Rock to make room for Huff on the big-league club. They also designated Minor League infielder Joe McEwing for assignment to create a spot for Huff on the 40-man roster........

..........Huff's been hot lately, too. He batted .359 (33-for-92) with three home runs and 13 RBIs in June. He's been even better this month with a .389 (14-for-36) mark and three homers in nine games.
Over his six-year career, Huff has hit better in the second half (.303 average, 71 homers, 239 RBIs) than the first (.273, 57, 210).

[Will Lavender]

Astros aren't going anywhere, IMO. They'll
finish ahead of the Reds, but they're still
going to be hovering around .500 in
September.

The central is St. Louis's or Milwaukee's
to win.