Do We Have An Ice Cube's Chance In Hades Of Beating UL Come September?

[baldcat]

Really slow around here so please indulge me.

Our offensive problems and the uncertainity at QB really trouble me.

I'm not sold on Archer.

Can someone please, please show me some hope for smacking down the yardbirds?

[DenCat]

It will be no easy task. We need to get a ton of pressure on Brohm and be able to stop Bush. I believe our secondary will not be as strong as we'd like and we cannot allow Brohm to sit in the pocket and pick us apart. Bush is a beast and very tough to bring down. Hopefully our D-line can get a good push and keep him contained. On offense, if our receiver corps can stay healthy, they will provide some relief to Little and company. Our O-line should be improved enough to give either Woodson or Pulley at least some time to make reads. It's not big news on what needs to be done. Can it be done? Yes. Will it? We will have to wait and see.

[Mackcat]

No. I called for the game last year to be close, but i think at UofL this year they are going to be to much, and i look for the score to get run up.

[BigBlue75]

I can understand the concern, butspeaking just for me,I'll believe U of L can beat us when I see it on the scoreboard. Not before.

I know U of L will be favored and I don't have a problem with that. I'm just not going to concede a defeat before the team takes the field. Again, that's just how I choose to look at it.

[CatScratchFever]

We do have at least an ice cube's chance in hell.

[StanTheMan10]

There's always a chance, otherwise they wouldn't play the games.

With that said, I believe we will need a lot of breaks to go our way. And with our reputation for getting the screws put to us in football, it will be a tall task.

[trublue4life]

Yes, we have a chance, probably even a little better than a snowball's chance in hell. A lto of things have to go our way for it to happen. We have to go into the game (and come out of it) healthy. We have to win the turnover battle and the special teams game. Finally, we have to control the ball on offense and keep Brohm & Bush off the field. It's a tall order, no doubt.

[ukbob]

Yes.

On any given Sunday...............

[Mackcat]

UK does not want this game on a Sunday.

[Mountain Cat]

Anything is possible. But I do think it will take about a +5 on turnovers for us to stand a chance. UL will be simply too hard for us to stop them on 3 downs.

One thing we did see on Brohm in the past is if you can get him a little rattled, then he is not the same player. I'd give up a penalty or two early to try to knock him down hard and make him think about the footsteps.

We are also going to have to take some chances offensively. The good thing is we have nothing to lose, whereas they face an embarrassing loss if we beat them.

Go Cats!

[VirginiaBlue]

Maybe it's true that the game was close last year because Petrino went conservative in the second half, but the fact is that we were in the game and coulda/shoulda/woulda won but for 2 things: (1) a phantom fumble (2) Elvis Dumerville. Dumerville is gone, and we should be improved at practically every position. (QB controversy or not - they are both a year more experienced than last year...)

I believe...

[Doug Hardin]

Last year's game was really competitive, even though UK was -3 in turnovers (I think, I'm just going off the top of my head and not looking at any stats).

UK should be better this year. They didn't lose anyone that's totally unreplaceable. Abdullah was the biggest loss. There's some good young talent coming in and should provide immediate help, plus the young guys already on the team should be better.

Louisville, of course, has Bush and Brohm back, but they've got to replace a number of linemen on both sides of the ball, namely Dumervil and Stanley on defense. They're also playing at home, but home field hasn't meant a whole lot in the history of this series: UK is 2-2 at The John, UL is 6-2 at Commonwealth.

Was last year's close result just a fluke? It's hard to say, but I don't think it was. That was the only game all year that UK washealthy. I can't say "totally" healthy because there were still plenty of guys that had gotten hurt in preseason practice. I don't have the time or space here to list everyone that got hurt during the Idaho State game the following week, nor do I need to explain how those injuries affected UK for the rest of the season. And even though he didn't miss a lot of time, something was wrong with Woodson for most of the season. Before he got hurt, he had a great game throwing the ball against U of L--holding onto it was another matter, of course.

And in this series and others like it, there's always the rivalry factor that mixes things up. Three or four years ago when Oklahoma was one of the top teams in the country, they lostto Oklahoma State a few times, who was pretty mediocre. Colorado State beats Colorado often.

So I think there's a pretty good chance UK can win this game. I certainly wouldn't call them the favorite or even suggest it's close to a toss-up. But I think it's also kind of crazy to have an attitude of "I hope we don't get killed," or "It's gonna take a miracle" about this game.

[Athens2005]

It's so hard to gauge what UK is going to do the first game of the season.

Some of the biggest surprises we have seen over the last 10 years have come in this game.

From Mumme's 1st game, to the 1st game of Guy Mo's 2nd season, to Brooks' 1st game, there have been some big surprises in this series - and unlike when we play Tennessee to end the season, we actually come away with a win occassionally.

Being the 1st game of the season, it's just too hard to predict what is going to happen.

So many different factors come into play during week 1: New players, new coaches, healthy players, new wrinkles on offense & defense, it's really hard to tell what's going to happen until the players take the field.

Last year's game, as already referenced, was a huge surprise.

In reality, there is no reason to believe that we can't have that type of performance again this season.

And maybe, for a change, we can hold onto the ball.

Beating the proverbial dead horse, Kentucky doesn't have the margin of error that most of its opponents (Louisville being no exception) have.

So, if Kentucky comes out and plays a good game, and doesn't turn the ball over, then yes, they have a shot at winning.

[T75]

How big is the ice cube?

I think our chances are nil and nun until Brohm is gone. He is just a super QB and we don't have anything that comes close to comparing. So, when all else may be nearly even, he is the difference-maker. Our only hope is that the guys play out of their skulls for this one. We've done it a time or two the last few years---LSU, UT...yeah, and the Cards. We've scared them all but not gotten the bit wins. Dang, how it hurts my heart to have to consider the Cards a "big win".

Actually I'm hoping that the Cards have a fantastic year so the chances will be good that Brohm will be gone to the NFL after this season. Reckon?

[Wildcat97]

VirginiaBlue wrote: Maybe it's true that the game was close last year because Petrino went conservative in the second half, but the fact is that we were in the game and coulda/shoulda/woulda won but for 2 things: (1) a phantom fumble (2) Elvis Dumerville. Dumerville is gone, and we should be improved at practically every position. (QB controversy or not - they are both a year more experienced than last year...)

I believe...


VABlue,

What phantom fumble...not the last as Woodson tried to cross the goal...right? As bad as that was for us, it was a good stick and a lucky knee that popped it out. I can't remember off the top any others that controversial.

Maybe not a great shot, but I do think we have a shot...alot depends on the receiving corps IMO. They lose 3 starting OL and DL...and a DB or LB or ?? so they may not be as experienced immediately. With guys like Little, Dixson, Smith, etc...I think we can have an effective rush...but gotta open it up some.

Either way...I'll be watching every second of it. Go Cats!

[VirginiaBlue]

Maybe "phantom" wasn't the right choice of words. I think at the very least it can be called "controversial", because it certainly has been debated quite a bit since it happened. :)

Fumble or no, we were a few feet away from having a tie ballgame.

[Mackcat]

If UK could have tied it there, do you have any faith our D would have kept them from getting at least a field goal?

[RCS]

UL was rattled at that point. They looked like crap. You can say conservative if you want but Brohm was missing wide open guys. If we scored the D would have held. The place was going bonkers. Remember, it was Brohms first start so he was not used to being in that position. Sadly we will never know.

[lighthouse]

T it up, and fight it out. We've all seen a lot worse teams than Ky., beat a lot better teams than UL. IMHO, We will be better than last year, and UL will be about the same. Both teams will have different looks. We'll see. Let's hope for injury free 2-a- days.

[rickdacatkilla]

I like our chances in this game.

[lighthouse]

rickdacatkilla wrote: I like our chances in this game.
I'm sure you do, and you should.

[ukbob]

rickdacatkilla wrote: I like our chances in this game.

Well DUH:D

I just want us to play inspired, prepared, tough football. We will be heavy underdogs and I would like to keep the game close...like last year. Because when the game is close late, you never know what will happen. And no injuries to either side.

[cardattack]

Does 2002 ring a bell? Anything can happen in this matchup.

[Blue4ever]

This game has also turned on the kicking game. In the inauguralUofL missed a couple of very make-able field goals to lose. Then we all remember the blocked chip shot in Dumme's last year that cost us in the "Noah's Ark Bowl". Four years agoUofL had several chances to turn the game in theirfavor but Pakalakkept turning the field position back in our favor. Three year ago (Brooks' first)we had a new punter who muffed a couple of snaps that cost usthe game.

Besides QB I'm most worried about our kicking game. Onepossible chink in UofL's armour may be its OL? Like 4 years ago they have a very young line (I believe only one returning starter?) so maybe this is something our DL can exploit?

[macdon]

You liked your chances at South Florida last year as well.

[TrueblueCATfan]

cardattack wrote: Does 2002 ring a bell? Anything can happen in this matchup.
thank you...a voice of reason.....I was just thinking about that year........alot of trash talking about going undefeated and to the BCS............boy did the CATS blow that out of the water........anything can happen

[Wildcat97]

Mackcat wrote: If UK could have tied it there, do you have any faith our D would have kept them from getting at least a field goal?

Yeah, for some reason I do. We lost a lot of will at that moment. Lost the momentum, lost hope...just rolled over. Hated to see that as a decent stand could have given us a chance, but never recovered.

Reminded me of the over-the-shoulder backwards pass to the flat by JLo that was picked and run back by FL, yet we were still up by what 10-14 pts. The wheels just came off after that...even with the lead. Spirit caved IMO. That is just what I saw vs. UofL. Solid D play that had a lucky break, and an utter failure to refocus on the game at hand...another LSU miricle pass type of SNAFU for UK football.

[T75]

We can talk about THE FUMBLE against the Cards or we can talk about THE PASS against LSU, etc. But let's face it, our Cats have a long history of finding ways to lose, even when they've played good games. Look at the way we've let games slip away fo good Florida and Tennessee teams that we had down and should have been beaten.

But our program has a habit of losing---and that is so hard to break away from and develop a sense of confidence and a belief in winning. I do believe that right now we have both enough player talent and a good enough staff to turn this thing around. I will be disappointed sick if we don't show some real signs of life this year. And the start with a strong showing against the Cards must be just the beginning, not the season.

[baldcat]

I've long suspected that if we can just close the deal once and pick up that elusive signature win, then this damned monkey will finally be off our backs.

T75 wrote:
We can talk about THE FUMBLE against the Cards or we can talk about THE PASS against LSU, etc. But let's face it, our Cats have a long history of finding ways to lose, even when they've played good games. Look at the way we've let games slip away fo good Florida and Tennessee teams that we had down and should have been beaten.

But our program has a habit of losing---and that is so hard to break away from and develop a sense of confidence and a belief in winning. I do believe that right now we have both enough player talent and a good enough staff to turn this thing around. I will be disappointed sick if we don't show some real signs of life this year. And the start with a strong showing against the Cards must be just the beginning, not the season.

[CATHYnKY]

rickdacatkilla wrote: I like our chances in this game.
Were you laughing uncontrollably when you posted this remark?:rolleyes:

[boomdaddy]

Injuries killed the Cats, last season. I don't hope for a close game. I would like to see a Victory in the opening game with no injuries, to get the season on a roll.

As far as special teams go, if UK still has a punter who kicks the ball at a snails pace to start the season, there could be a few blocked punts that might pull defeat right out of the mouth of victory.

[poodoo]

macdon wrote: You liked your chances at South Florida last year as well.


Exactly. :ggrin:Too, anything can happen. GO CATS! BEAT CARDS! :cool:

[poodoo]

Wildcat97 wrote: Mackcat wrote: If UK could have tied it there, do you have any faith our D would have kept them from getting at least a field goal?

Yeah, for some reason I do. We lost a lot of will at that moment. Lost the momentum, lost hope...just rolled over. Hated to see that as a decent stand could have given us a chance, but never recovered.

Reminded me of the over-the-shoulder backwards pass to the flat by JLo that was picked and run back by FL, yet we were still up by what 10-14 pts. The wheels just came off after that...even with the lead. Spirit caved IMO. That is just what I saw vs. UofL. Solid D play that had a lucky break, and an utter failure to refocus on the game at hand...another LSU miricle pass type of SNAFU for UK football.





Excellent point, Wildcat97.

Too, our guys would have had a HUGE advantage if we had tied the game at that point. Commonwealth Stadium would have gone WILD, and the UK players' adrenaline would have been flowing almost unbelievably. Our defenders would have been the exact opposite of just lying down. Too, I suspect Brohm and his teammates would have felt the pressure and quite possibly have caved into it. Yes, we could have stopped Louisville and then have scored and won that game, just as we CAN possibly (and hopefully!) win this September. :)

[poodoo]

baldcat wrote: I've long suspected that if we can just close the deal once and pick up that elusive signature win, then this damned monkey will finally be off our backs.

T75 wrote:
We can talk about THE FUMBLE against the Cards or we can talk about THE PASS against LSU, etc. But let's face it, our Cats have a long history of finding ways to lose, even when they've played good games. Look at the way we've let games slip away fo good Florida and Tennessee teams that we had down and should have been beaten.

But our program has a habit of losing---and that is so hard to break away from and develop a sense of confidence and a belief in winning. I do believe that right now we have both enough player talent and a good enough staff to turn this thing around. I will be disappointed sick if we don't show some real signs of life this year. And the start with a strong showing against the Cards must be just the beginning, not the season.




I have long suspected the same, baldcat. We have come so close so many times, and ONE "signature win" could indeed make these players REALLY BELIEVE, which will help it to happen much more often.Let's just hope and pray it comes THIS SEASON! :)